Feb 6, 2011: Rain/Snow Mix Tomorrow Night

Notes: The 5-Day Forecast page has been updated for the immediate NYC area and places further west, and I issued a Light Snow Alert for the western parts of the area earlier this evening.

Tomorrow’s Storm: Light Snow Inland, Rain/Mix For NYC/Coast

Today was a mostly sunny and mild day across the areas as high temperatures unexpectedly surged into the lower to mid 40s. Tomorrow will be another mild day with similar temperatures, but mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are expected as a storm moves in.

We are currently at a point similar to yesterday’s storm, where a day before the storm, the models did not have a good handle on the storm track and its impact across the region. The models are still not very consistent for this storm, with the recent NAM run having trended wetter. Regardless of the track, there is a good idea on the general impact on the area from this storm.

We are looking at rain moving into the area around the evening hours, which will become steadier by the overnight hours. 850 mb temperatures will be below zero degrees celsius, however 925 mb and surface temperatures are still above freezing for a good part of the area, leading to rain for the immediate NYC area and places further east, potentially mixing with snow towards the end of the storm in the immediate suburbs of NYC. The western parts of the area, however, will likely see temperatures cold enough for snow mixing in with the rain. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland, and in the lower to mid 30s for the rest of the area.

With mild surface temperatures, it will be hard for any snow to stick, however there is the potential for at least 1 to 3 inches of snow for the western parts of the area, where I issued a Light Snow Alert. It is possible that temperatures may be colder, with more accumulations inland, there could be more mixing with less accumulations, or the storm could be further east with a drier outcome. More information on this storm will be posted tomorrow.

Mid-Late Next Week: Cold, Then Potential Storm

Wednesday will bring temperatures slightly warmer than those of Monday night with clearing skies, but windy conditions are expected with the potential for wind gusts near or over 30 mph. On Tuesday night, as a colder air mass moves into the area, temperatures will quickly drop overnight, reaching the single digits north and west of NYC, with the potential for temperatures to drop near or slightly below zero degrees for the interior areas in the colder case scenario, which at this time is unlikely but will be watched. With windy conditions expected, wind chills will be in the single digits and negative single digits across the area overnight into Wednesday morning.

By Thursday, another storm is expected to move towards the region, however its impact on the area, if any, is still uncertain. All of the models keep most of the storm to the south of the area, with the northernmost model solutions only showing light snow for the area. Given the trends of this winter, and the fact that this is still 4 days out, there is time for the scenario to change, and I expect the storm to trend north and west of where it is now on the models, however how far north/west it trends is still a question, and impacts may range from a storm clipping the coast with light snow, to a snowstorm for the Interstate 95 corridor, to a storm moving up the coast with a snowstorm west of I-95 and mixing issues for the immediate NYC area. More information will be posted on this storm once uncertainty decreases.

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