1:05 PM: The low pressure is currently directly over northern New Jersey. As last night’s discussion mentioned, some models suggested that a thunderstorm line would form in the afternoon as the cold front is moving through. With the storm moving faster than expected, this is taking place now instead of the late afternoon, with a line of strong thunderstorms from central New Jersey moving southwest towards Maryland and Delaware, moving east. These thunderstorms are capable of producing strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall from northeastern New Jersey and further south/east into Long Island and NYC, with moderate to heavy rain expected further north/northeast.
Windy conditions are expected to continue in Long Island, frequently gusting near or above 50 mph, though later today, the winds will calm down a little in Long Island while spreading across the rest of the area before calming down during the overnight hours.
I may post another update later this afternoon, otherwise the next update will be posted later tonight, focusing on a light snow event for Sunday morning north of NYC with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible, followed by a strong storm well to the northwest of the area on Monday that will bring heavy rain and thunderstorms, especially in the evening and early overnight hours.
11:15 AM: Last night, I mentioned how the warmer scenario was the more likely one, but that the models were beginning to suggest a colder scenario. This morning, some models, especially the NAM, are still trying to take this low pressure south, with a track over New York City. Looking at the latest observations, it is a little difficult to tell exactly where the low pressure will end up, however it appears to be moving east northeast, which would take it over northern New Jersey and into Connecticut.
There is currently a sharp temperature gradient moving from northeastern New Jersey into Connecticut. Temperatures north and west of this line are in the lower 30s to lower 40s, and temperatures southeast of this line are in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Heavy rain fell across most of the area earlier this morning, though freezing rain potentially fell in the interior parts of the area where temperatures were in the lower 30s, and most of the heavy rain has moved out of the area by now, though heavy rain continues to affect Long Island and eastern Connecticut.
The interior parts of the area may fail to reach the 40 degree mark this afternoon, though the sharp temperature gradient will likely continue in the immediate NYC area, where high temperatures will peak anywhere from the lower to upper 40s north and west of NYC and into southern Connecticut, with upper 40s to mid 50s for NYC and Long Island. There may be some additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, especially from NYC and further south, as the cold front moves through, and the interior parts of the area could even see some snow showers as the storm ends in the evening. Gusty winds are still expected during the day especially south and east of NYC, which may gust up to 50-60 mph, with windy conditions spreading across the entire area early tonight before calming down by tomorrow morning.