Feb 22, 2011: Heavy Rain Potential For Friday

Note: Due to technical difficulties, the 5-Day Forecast was only updated for the immediate NYC area. In addition, expect a Rain Watch to be issued for the area for Friday sometime tomorrow.

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After the snowstorm that dumped anywhere from 2 to 8 inches of snow across the area yesterday morning, temperatures were very cold this morning, in the 10s for most of the area and single digits inland. Tonight will again bring temperatures similar to those of this morning, but warmer weather will return for tomorrow with high temperatures between the mid 30s and lower 40s. This warm up will continue, and eventually by Friday, a storm will move into the region, bringing the potential for heavy rain as well as flooding in places where there is still a deep snow pack.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

After the cold temperatures tonight, tomorrow will also bring sunny skies along with a light northwest wind expected. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s for most of the area with lower 40s in the immediate NYC area.

Thursday – Friday: Heavy Rain Potential

On Thursday, increasing clouds are expected for the area as the next storm approaches from the west. This storm, however, will be wet rather than white, with the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of the area.

There is a wide range of solutions with the models, ranging from a significant snowstorm for the area with the 12z GFS to a storm tracking through Ohio on the UKMET. The set up with this storm, however, is very unfavorable for a snowstorm for most of the area, with the main issues being a lack of cold, no high pressure to the north of the storm and nothing to prevent it from tracking inland. The lack of cold air issue can also be seen with the GFS, where surface temperatures are warmer than 850 mb temperatures.

While the ECMWF and UKMET models may be too far west and too strong, the GFS is probably too far east, and at this time I am going with a track near the Interstate 95 corridor or west of there, producing 1 to 1.5 inches of rain for the area with the heaviest on Friday morning followed by the potential for the storm to end with a little back end snow for the western parts of the area. Stay tuned for more information on this storm and how it may affect the area.

Longer Range: Tomorrow’s update will discuss the longer range in more details, including a weak storm around February 27 and another storm for March 1-2 that may produce rain.

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