Feb 19, 2011: Moderate Snow Tomorrow Night

After yesterday’s spring-like conditions, which also resulted in a rapid snow melt, ending nearly 2 months of consistent snow cover in parts of the area while only a few inches remain in other parts of the area, winter made a return to the area today with steadily dropping temperatures and strong wind gusts, generally between 45 and 60 mph across the area. The winds will calm down tonight as temperatures drop into the 10s for most of the area, however the dry conditions won’t last for long, as a storm threatens to bring the first widespread accumulating snowfall to the area since February 1-2 on Sunday night.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring increasing cloud cover with a decreasing WNW wind, which may gust up to 20-30 mph in the morning. High temperatures will be in the mid 30s inland and in the mid to upper 30s for the rest of the area, with a few lower 40s possible in the immediate NYC area.

Tomorrow Night – Monday: Moderate Snow Expected

As mentioned yesterday, there were two possible scenarios, one of them taking the storm near the area with some light snow changing over to a mix and then rain, with the other scenario taking the storm further south, bringing a moderate snowfall to the area. There is still uncertainty with which solution is the correct one, though at this time it appears that the colder scenario may be the more likely one.

Tomorrow night, the storm is expected to be located near Chicago, racing east or ESE, reaching the Atlantic Ocean just south of Cape Cod by Monday afternoon. Light snow will spread from west to east across the area between 10 PM and 2 AM, and will become moderate by the middle of the overnight hours, with the heaviest snow focusing north of NYC. As 850 mb temperatures begin to warm up, a changeover will take place, but when, where and to what type of precipitation is not certain yet.

At this time, it appears that towards the morning hours, the southwestern and southern parts of the area change over to a mix of sleet, freezing rain and potentially rain, with this mix also spreading towards northeastern New Jersey and Long Island. Connecticut and interior Southeast New York appear to stay mostly snow at this time, however in the warmer case scenario, mixing could also reach these areas. By the time that the snow ends, at least 1 to 3 inches of snow are expected for NYC, 2 to 4 inches north of NYC, and 3 to 5 inches for the interior parts of the area, though these amouts are still subject to some changes with tomorrow’s updates.

By noon-2 PM, the storm should end across the area, with some clearing in the cloud cover possible. As the area will stay in the cold side of the storm, temperatures will fail to warm up significantly, only reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s for most places, however south of the area, especially south of the Pennsylvania/Maryland border, temperatures will surge well into the 60s, with even 70s returning into Virginia again.

There is still some uncertainty with the storm and which scenario verifies, and it is possible that we may end up with a warmer solution than the one suggested above. Several updates will be posted on this storm tomorrow regarding any possible changes to the forecast. Stay tuned for more information on this storm tomorrow.

Monday Night – Tuesday: Cold And Dry

The second storm that was originally mentioned with yesterday is now modeled to be south on all models, and with no support for anything more than some flurries reaching the area, I removed the mention of snow from the 5-Day Forecast. The second storm will stay to the south of the area, bringing a light to moderate snowfall for places such as southern New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware.

Meanwhile, as cold air pushes south, temperatures in the area will drop well into the 10s for most of the area on Monday night, and even into the single digits for the interior parts of the area. While Tuesday will bring partly sunny skies, temperatures will fail to warm up much, only reaching the mid 20s to lower 30s across the area, well below the average high temperatures for this time of the year.

Temperatures will begin to warm up again after Tuesday, however, reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s by Wednesday, which will be followed by yet another storm potential between February 25-27.

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