Feb 14, 2011: Cold And Windy Tonight

As a strong clipper brought rain and snow to the Northeast, partly sunny skies and a southwest wind ahead of a cold front led to temperatures rising above the averages across the region, but ended up exceeding the forecast, reaching the mid to upper 50s across most of the area and even 60 degrees in Newark! This makes today the warmest day in the area since December, however even warmer days are expected for the end of this week.

Before the warm temperatures return, a brief cold spell will affect the area tonight into tomorrow night along with windy conditions bringing gusts between 40 and 50 mph in parts of the area. Warmer temperatures will return by the end of the week with 60s returning for Friday, but this warmth will not last for long as a cold front on Saturday brings temperatures back to levels near or below average, with a stormy pattern developing starting on the 21st.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

As the cold front clears the region and a high pressure moves in from the west, windy conditions will continue through the morning, with gusts occasionally between 30 and 40 mph, but will calm down by the afternoon. A cold air mass will briefly move into the region, bringing very cold temperatures for the Northeast, and colder than average temperatures for the area, reaching the upper 20s to lower 30s inland and lower to mid 30s for the immediate NYC area. A northwest wind is expected.

Wednesday – Saturday: Widespread 60s For Friday

The cool down for tomorrow will only be a brief one. A southwest wind will return for Wednesday along with a warmer air mass, leading to high temperatures rising well into the 40s across the area. Thursday will be even warmer, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s in the immediate NYC area. Overnight lows on Thursday night will be unusually mild, in the mid to upper 30s for most of the area with upper 30s to mid 40s in the immediate NYC area and closer to the coast, which combined with the warm daytime temperatures, will help lead to the snow pack melting.

with Friday expected to be the warmest day. There is some slight uncertainty with how warm Friday gets, with some models showing temperatures in the lower 50s and others showing lower 60s. Given the set up, I am expecting high temperatures to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area at this time, though some minor changes are possible to the temperature forecast.

On Saturday, a cold front will move through, bringing windy conditions, the risk of isolated showers and a much colder air mass. While a return to a snowy pattern is not expected, this cold front will bring in temperatures closer to the average, with a stormy pattern developing by the 21st.

Sunday And Beyond: Cold, Then Stormy

Behind the cold front, temperatures are expected to return to below average levels, with high temperatures likely returning into the 30s and 20s on Sunday. The dry conditions will quickly come to an end, however, as a storm will affect the area on Monday and Tuesday.

As can be expected with a storm a week into the longer range, there is uncertainty with the smaller details of the storm, however looking at the set up, with a cold air mass initially in place and a high pressure moving out as the storm comes in, there is the potential for the storm to start with frozen precipitation, though whether the storm brings plain rain, a mixed/rain event, or a mostly snow/mixed event is still uncertain this far out. Stay tuned for more information on this storm as details become clearer.

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