***This post is from 2011. Please visit the MAIN PAGE to see the latest forecasts for January 2012.
As an inverted trough moved across the area today, heavy snow fell especially in places north of New York City, with isolated reports of up to a foot of snow in southwestern Connecticut. A storm summary will not be posted yet, however, as the storm is still not over, with another round of snow expected for tomorrow that previously was not expected to happen. Afterwards, the winter pattern shows no sign of weakening, as the next potential of accumulating snowfall returns by Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
Tomorrow’s Outlook: More Snow
The short term models today reflected a change in the forecast which is expected to bring another round of snow to the region tomorrow. It appears that a low pressure will start to rapidly intensify off the coast tomorrow, bringing a moderate to heavy snow event from southern Pennsylvania, east towards Delaware and New Jersey, and into Long Island and southern New England.
The best chance of heavy snow appears to be south of New York City, into southern New Jersey and southeastern Massachusetts, where at least 4 or more inches of snow are possible, with the heaviest snow in the NYC area in eastern Long Island, where the potential for up to 4 inches exists. The snow also appears to reach NYC, but the question is how much snow falls, as some models show a trace of snow while others have 2 inches. I am going with lighter snow for NYC with at least near 1 inch, but this could change. An update will be posted on this potential tomorrow morning.
Other than the snow, cold temperatures will continue across the area, with high temperatures generally in the mid 20s to lower 30s and a light variable wind expected. A few mid 30s are possible in the immediate NYC area as well as Long Island.
Sunday – Monday: Cold, Dry
On Sunday, as the storm exits the area, windy conditions are expected but with clearing skies, and high temperatures will slowly warm up, reaching the upper 20s to mid 30s. Monday will continue the slight warming trend but with temperatures still several degrees below average, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s across the area. Cloud cover will start to increase on Monday night, however, as a storm will approach the area.
Tuesday – Wednesday: Another Potential Snowstorm
For the last few days, I discussed the potential for a storm to affect the area between Tuesday and Wednesday. Almost every model now shows at least some precipitation for the area, and even the GFS model which is the southeasternmost solution and a likely outlier brings several inches of snow to parts of the area. Even if the main storm misses the area, an upper level low can still bring light snow, and with increased confidence for this event potentially affecting the area, I went with a 70% chance of snow for the area on Wednesday. Note that this mainly depends on the trends we will see over the next two days, and if they continue to be supportive of snow falling if the area, I will continue to raise snow probabilities.
Accumulations are the main question at this time, as models range from showing a light 2-4 inch snowfall for parts of the area to a 10+ inch blizzard. While it is too early to determine whether such a big snowstorm is likely or not, there is the potential for snow to accumulate during this time frame, and at least several inches of snow are possible at times time. It is possible that the storm ends up too close to the coast that it brings mixing with rain for the central and eastern parts of the area, another possibility is that the storm moves close enough to the coast to deliver a big snowstorm along the Interstate 95 corridor, and it is also possible that the storm mainly stays out to sea with some light snow for the area. Stay tuned for more information on this storm over the next few days.