Jan 27, 2011: Cold And Snow Not Over Yet

The region has been stuck under a consistently cold and snowy pattern since December, with today’s major snowstorm shattering records for January snowfall, and as I will mention in more details below, there is the potential for Central Park to break its record for the snowiest month of all time, which was February 2010. The cold and snowy pattern is nowhere near its end, however, as there is yet another storm potential for next week with the longer range models indicating that the current pattern persists through the 15 day range. In addition, a long range outlook for February that will be posted within the next week or so will also discuss the potential for this winter to reach or even break the record for the snowiest winter on record, with 20 more inches needed to reach that record.

Friday And Saturday: Mainly Cloudy, Occasional Light Snow

Tomorrow will be a mostly cloudy to cloudy day across the area with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 30s for NYC and further east. A weak clipper will bring widespread light snow to the region, mostly to the south of the area where light accumulations up to about 1/2 inch may be possible, though some snow showers are still expected for the area tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours with a general dusting of snow possible.

Another clipper will move through on Saturday afternoon and evening, however this clipper has the potential to be slightly stronger than that of tomorrow. While it will not be a significant snow producer, it has the potential of dropping an inch of snow across parts of the area. If New York City records at least an inch of snow over the next two days, this month will officially break the record for the snowiest month in recorded history in Central Park. At this time, NYC is expected to see less than an inch of snow, however this potential will be monitored.

Longer Range: Another Storm Potential Next Week

The latest models continue to suggest that a storm is possible during the middle of next week, but its track and how it affects the area is still uncertain. There are two main groups of solutions at this time, with the GFS and ECMWF models showing a further south and weaker storm, with the 12z GFS and 18z DGEX showing yet another major snowstorm for parts of the area. The GGEM and UKMET are further west, with mostly rain for the area. There is uncertainty on which scenario verifies at this time, though it does appear that there may be a round of snow on Tuesday, separate from this storm threat for Wednesday into Thursday. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.

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