Jan 26-27, 2011 Storm Updates


***This post is from 2011. Please visit the MAIN PAGE to see the latest forecasts for January 2012.

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Below, storm updates will be posted on the storm that will affect the area through the morning of Thursday, January 27.

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7:15 AM: The storm has ended across the area over the last several hours, however snow rates that exceeded the expectations resulted in higher snow totals than expected, with this storm bringing a widespread 12+ inches to the area, shattering snow records for January as well as pushing snow totals across the area to levels almost as high as those of last winter only by late Jaunary, with even more cold and snow left in the winter.

Last night, it was mentioned that places just north/west, near, and east of NYC continued to see occasional mixing with sleet keeping the highest totals further west, and that the highest totals would end up north and west of NYC. While places north and west of NYC saw higher totals than those in NYC, with reports of 17-18″ in Union County, NJ and 17″ in West Norwalk, CT, as the snow fell at heavier rates than expected, a more accurate call would have been to keep the forecast snow in NYC the same and raise totals north and west of NYC, instead of keeping the same snow forecast north and west of NYC and slightly lowering the snow totals in NYC.

This was overall a difficult storm to forecast, with the models constantly moving back and forth from a storm bringing a major rainstorm to the area to a storm out to sea, and this ended up as yet another major snowstorm in a record breaking winter that is still far from over. A storm summary on this storm will be posted sometime over the next several days.

The next update will be posted tonight, with information about upcoming light snow events for Friday and Saturday and a potentially bigger storm around Tuesday.

10:00 PM: Most of the area is currently seeing moderate to heavy precipitation, however there continues to be mixing with sleet in the immediate NYC area. It appears that snow totals need to be slightly lowered for NYC and the immediate N/W suburbs, with a total of 5 to 8 inches overnight. Places further north and west of NYC appear to end up with the highest amounts, with a storm total between 10 and 14 inches possible.

This was the last update for tonight. Another update will be posted tomorrow morning after the storm ends.

9:35 PM: Over the last hour, New York City saw mainly sleet, with some rain mixed in for eastern Long Island, and snow west and north of NYC. New York City is now changing over to plain snow, and the changeover to snow will continue to move east through Long Island. Meanwhile, heavy snow will continue falling over NE NJ and NYC, with snow rates between 1 and 2 inches per hour. Windy conditions will lead to near zero visibility at times.

Northwestern New Jersey is currently seeing moderate to locally heavy snow, which will continue over the next several hours.

8:30 PM: **WARNING:** The thunderstorm that moved through New York City over the last hour weakened earlier, however over the last 10 minutes it has quickly intensified in Westchester and Rockland counties, with a 45-50 dbz band moving north through these areas. This band will continue to move north to affect the rest of Rockland county, extreme eastern Orange county, Putnam county, and extreme western CT, including Danbury. This band is capable of producing very heavy snow and sleet, gusty winds, and thunder. Take caution if you are in this storm’s path.

7:00 PM: A heavy thunderstorm previously mentioned is currently moving into New York City, producing heavy sleet mixed with snow, thunder, and gusty winds. This thunderstorm, however, is only the start of what’s to come this evening. Heavy snow and sleet in New Jersey is moving northeast, and will start to affect the area between the next 1-2 hours.

While some mixing with sleet is expected early on, the precipitation type will then change over to snow from west to east, with the result being a widespread heavy snow across the area in the early overnight hours. Snow rates between 1 and 2 inches per hour are possible, and some thunder is also possible early on. By the time that the storm ends between 3-6 AM, an additional 6 to 10 inches of snow are expected for the immediate NYC area, with similar but slightly lighter amounts in eastern Long Island.

6:40 PM: **WARNING**: A heavy thunderstorm is currently located off the coast of New Jersey quickly moving north, and will affect New York City, Nassau county in LI, extreme SW Connecticut and Westchester county over the next 1/2 to 1 hour. The storm could also potentially affect extreme NE NJ and SE Rockland County if it extends further west. Very heavy snow and sleet can be expected with this band, as well as lightning and thunder. There have also been reports of hail with this cell. Strong wind gusts are also expected. Take caution if you are in the path of this storm.

4:25 PM: Earlier this morning, the area saw a round of heavy snow with accumulations generally between 1.5 and 4.5 inches so far across the area. This was the result of the storm moving in earlier than expected and with heavier precipitation than expected.

Currently, most of the area is seeing isolated light sleet showers, though a band of heavy snow and sleet is currently near Bergen and Rockland counties moving NE, and is capable of producing a quick coating of snow. As the storm continues to intensify, heavy snow, sleet and rain along with thunder are affecting places such as Maryland, and the heavy precipitation will continue to move ENE to affect the area from this evening into the overnight hours. Until then, light snow/sleet will continue to fall, mixing with light rain further east, changing over to snow from west to east this evening.

At the worst of the storm, heavy snow will focus over the immediate NYC area with snow rates between 1 and 2 inches per hour, and windy conditions will lead to low visibilities. In addition to what fell today, another 6 to 8 inches of snow are expected in the immediate NYC area into southern Connecticut tonight, potentially as much as 10 inches of snow, leading to a storm total of 7 to 14 inches of snow. Lighter snow will fall in the western parts of the area, with an additional 3 to 6 inches of snow expected tonight.

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