Jan 23, 2011 Morning: Forecast Changes


***This post is from 2011. Please visit the MAIN PAGE to see the latest forecasts for January 2012.

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12:00 PM: Last night’s and this morning’s model runs brought a big change from yesterday’s forecast, with the inland track no longer favored. While yesterday, I went with a track that would hug the coast, bringing snow to rain for the area and snow inland, the western models have shifted east, with the western solutions being a coastal hugger on the GGEM and the eastern solutions being an out to sea storm on the GFS model. Even though the track is further east on these models, there is still the problem of a lack of strong cold air, meaning that even if the storm is in a favorable position for a significant snowstorm, it may result in a wintry mix in the area. The storm is also much slower with the latest models, only starting on Wednesday afternoon.

There is still a lot of uncertainty with this storm, and my forecast remains a low confidence one, though I may make an afternoon update with major changes to the 5-day forecast, including slightly lowering forecast temperatures, slightly lowering probability of precipitation, and delaying the storm’s timing to Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.

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