***This post is from 2011. Please visit the MAIN PAGE to see the latest forecasts for January 2012.
In the post below, storm updates will be posted on the snow and ice storm that is currently affecting the area.
4:00 PM Update: Since this morning, the immediate NYC area and coastal southern Connecticut changed over to rain as expected, which was heavy at times and resulted in flooding in some places. In the western and northernmost parts of the area, however, temperatures stayed below or near freezing, and the precipitation failed to change over to rain, in fact these areas are still seeing freezing rain at this time as the storm is ending. There are no reports of final ice totals yet, however a significant ice storm was observed in the western and the northernmost parts of the area.
The precipitation is currently ending for the central and starting to end for the eastern parts of the area, however there is still another round of precipitation expected for tonight, which may bring more frozen precipitation for the western parts of the area. The storm will end by tomorrow afternoon.
Stay tuned for the next full update tonight, with more information for Friday’s storm and the arctic air blast that will follow, likely bringing the coldest temperatures since January 2009 for most of the area.
7:15 AM Update: Overnight, the area saw light to moderate snow with accumulations generally over an inch away from the coast. 850 mb temperatures are currently above zero, however surface temperatures are still below freezing across most of the area, leading to freezing rain falling across most of the area except for Long Island, which has mainly changed over to rain.
Freezing rain will change over to rain first in the immediate NYC area later this morning, followed by southern Connecticut, with the most persistent freezing rain in interior SE NY and NW NJ. Freezing rain amounts between 0.1 and 0.3 inch are expected for southern Connecticut and NE NJ, with between 0.3 to as much as locally 0.6 inch of freezing rain for the western parts of the area, where freezing rain will be the main precipitation type.
Based on the current short term models and the radar appearance, it appears that the storm may move out by the early afternoon for the western and central parts of the area, which is earlier than previously expected. If this does happen, the western parts of the area may fail to change over to rain, and the immediate NYC area could be spared of significant snow melt. The same does not go for Long Island, however, which is expected to see at least an inch of rain, if not a little more.
The next update will be posted this afternoon, with more about this storm and about Friday’s storm.