Jan 18, 2011 Brief Update


***This post is from 2011. Please visit the MAIN PAGE to see the latest forecasts for January 2012.

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Today’s update is a brief one, with a short discussion focusing on the Thursday-Friday storm. The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the area except for Long Island/S CT.

Tomorrow And Thursday: Cooling Down

While the storm is exiting the area, the cold isn’t moving in just yet. The cold is expected to move in by tomorrow night with some precipitation expected for the area tonight into tomorrow morning, with high temperatures tomorrow in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area. Thursday will be a colder day as a cold air mass moves into the region once again, with high temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s across the area.

Thursday Night – Friday Storm: Uncertainty Continues

Yesterday, I mentioned how there are three possible scenarios, one of them bringing a big snowstorm to the west/north of the area and a wintry mix along the Interstate 95 corridor, another one of them bringing a significant snowstorm from the area into parts of New England, and another scenario where the storm intensifies too late and we see a widespread light to moderate snow event across the region. Today’s models are still showing this uncertainty, though the western scenario that would bring a wintry mix for the area is unlikely at this time.

It appears that at this time, the main split is between a solution that would bring a significant snowstorm to the area and a solution where the storm intensifies too late, with a widespread light to moderate snow, though a western solution still cannot be ruled out. With every model consistently showing at least some snow, I have decided to include a 100% chance of snow in the 5-Day Forecast, as it still appears that at least some light snow should fall.

We have seen several different solutions today, with the NAM the most extreme at first, bringing a widespread 8-10+ inch snowstorm to the area and its latest run bringing at least 3-6 inches for the area. The SREF has been showing a further northwest and snowier solution, the GFS is showing a moderate snowstorm, and the ECMWF model is showing a weaker and drier solution. Due to the uncertainty, I decided to wait until tomorrow before going into forecasting snow accumulations and adding alerts, though there is at least some idea on what could happen. This storm is expected to move quickly, not lasting much more than 12 hours, preventing high snow accumulations well over a foot, though it still appears that the area will likely see accumulating snowfall with the drier solutions. It appears at this time that with the snowier solutions, a maximum snow potential of 8 to 12 inches may be possible, with a minimum of 1 to 3 inches, though this range should likely be narrowed down by tomorrow.

With all of the uncertainty, it is still too early to determine whether this will be a significant snowstorm for the area or not, though there is the potential for a snowstorm with at least 4 or more inches to affect the area between Thursday night and Friday afternoon. Stay tuned for more information on this storm over the next few days.

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