Jan 17, 2011 Morning Updates


***This post is from 2011. Please visit the MAIN PAGE to see the latest forecasts for January 2012.

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While a full update will be posted tonight, including the final storm forecast for tonight into tomorrow, there were some changes this morning with the forecast that I will mention with the update below. In addition, the storm summary for the January 11-12 storm was posted this morning, and a new poll was opened for the potential impacts with the Friday storm.

Today: Warmer Than Previously Expected

The low temperatures last night ended up busting too far on the cold side, as despite the expectation for very cold temperatures, increased cloud cover prevented even interior areas from dropping below 10 degrees. Today is now expected to be warmer than yesterday’s forecast, with high temperatures in the lower, potentially mid 20s inland, with mid 20s for the rest of the area. Some upper 20s cannot be ruled out from NYC and further south/SW.

Tonight into Tuesday – Colder/Snowier Solution Now Expected

As I was working on my discussion last night, the 00z NAM run came in much colder and snowier. While I thought that the NAM could be a bit too extreme, it continued with its cold solutions and the GFS/GGEM also trended much colder. With a faster start to the precipitation a possibility, the entire area is expected to see at least some snow to start, with accumulations up to 1 inch in Long Island, between 1 and 2 inches for NYC, 1.5 to 2.5 inches for NE NJ through southern Connecticut, and 2 to 5 inches for the interior parts of the area. At least 0.1 to 0.2 inch of freezing rain is possible for the immediate north/west suburbs of NYC, with 0.2 to 0.4 inch of freezing rain a possibility further inland, where the precipitation may stay frozen for the entire duration of the storm.

The 5-Day Forecast will be updated this afternoon, with my latest expectation for each part of the area. Stay tuned for more updates on this storm later this afternoon and tonight.

Late Week Storm: Big Storm Potential?

Yesterday, I mentioned how a low pressure is expected for Friday, however there are significant differences. The 00z GGEM run today showed a very strong storm, with what seems to be over 10 inches of snow for the central and western parts of the area with mixing issues for the eastern parts of the area. For reasons that I will discuss in more details later tonight, a big storm scenario is starting to become a better possibility, and while there is still uncertainty as some models still do not show this while others do, there is the potential for a significant storm to affect the area on Friday, which may bring a significant snowstorm to the area depending on the set up scenario. Stay tuned for more information on this storm and how it may affect the area.

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