Only a brief update will be posted tonight. The general outlook has been briefly discussed, and will be discussed in more details tomorrow, as well as more detailed scenario maps.
Tonight And Tomorrow:
**Correction: The Daily Condition should say “Mostly Sunny”, not “Isolated Flurries”.**
Tomorrow, as 850 mb temperatures drop to near -16c, temperatures will be at their coldest, with a NW wind expected. Mostly sunny skies will take place, with high temperatures will be in the lower to potentially mid 30s for Long Island/S CT, upper 20s to lower 30s for the immediate NYC area, and mid to upper 20s inland.
Temperatures tomorrow night may be slightly colder than tonight, with a few isolated readings below 10 degrees possible inland in the higher elevations, with mid to upper 10s for S CT and the north/west suburbs of NYC and lower to mid 20s in NYC.
Longer Range: Friday Clipper, Big Storm To Follow, Then Extreme Cold
A weak clipper is expected to push out the cold on Friday night, however high temperatures will still be cold, in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area. An isolated snow shower is possible north of NYC due to this clipper, but is unlikely to amount to anything more than a trace of snow. This will lead to warmer temperatures on Saturday, with high temperatures back into the 40s for the immediate NYC area.
For the Monday storm, there is still a good amount of uncertainty as models are far from reaching an agreement on the track, but at this time, my thoughts are for a potential storm track that goes through southern Indiana/Ohio, transitioning to a low pressure in the Northeast just west of NYC that moves north. If this scenario verifies, Sunday would bring rain with the potential of a little snow/sleet inland when the storm starts, changing over to rain. Temperatures would rise steadily on Sunday evening/night peaking near 50 in NYC, and as the cold front comes through around Monday morning/afternoon, temperatures could crash into the 30s and 20s by Monday afternoon/evening. There is still some uncertainty to this solution though, and it could change tomorrow. Stay tuned for more details as well as a scenario map.
After the storm, it is expected to get much colder, with highs in the upper 10s inland and lower to mid 20s in NYC possible on Tuesday, with overnight lows potentially in the mid to upper 0s inland and even near the upper 10s in NYC. Windy conditions due to the storm well to the northeast could make it feel even colder. Stay tuned for more details on this cold spell.