Dec 5: Two Storm Potentials Next Weekend

Notes:

– A new poll has been opened for the potential December 12-14 storm and how it may affect the area. Please vote your thoughts in the poll, which will close on Friday.

The poll on the clipper that affected Virginia/North Carolina this morning ended on Friday, with the results below. The majority was correct in voting that there would be a snow-producing storm which would stay south of NYC. Here are the other results:

2 votes – No storm, dry and chilly
6 votes – Storm, snow stays south of NYC
2 votes – Storm, snow falls and accumulates in NYC

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Today was a mainly cloudy day across the area with scattered flurries observed. Temperatures as expected were colder than yesterday’s highs, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s inland, mid 30s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 30s for Long Island/S CT. Low temperatures this morning busted too low due to the cloud cover, and as a result the forecast lows for tonight and Monday night are slightly warmer than previously expected.

The coldest conditions are expected on Wednesday and Thursday for the area, as a high pressure brings clear skies with the coldest temperatures of the arctic air mass taking place these days, leading to the potential of widespread low temperatures below 20 degrees away from NYC. By Friday, the cold will start to moderate, however in between this moderation of the cold and another potential arctic outbreak in the following week, there are two potential storms that may affect the area.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a mostly cloudy day across the area. A breezy west wind is expected, with gusts over 30 mph at times. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s inland and in the mid to upper 30s for the rest of the area. Scattered snow showers are expected across the area, some of which may accumulate a little if they are heavy enough.

The windy conditions expected are going to be the result of a strong storm expected to hit Maine tonight into tomorrow with heavy snowfall, which is actually the same clipper that brought light snow to southern Virginia and North Carolina yesterday.

Tuesday – Thursday: Worst Of The Arctic Air Mass

On Tuesday, as the storm remains stationary near the northern Northeast, breezy conditions are expected again with mostly cloudy skies and scattered snow showers. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than those of tomorrow, in the lower 30s inland, lower to mid 30s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 30s for Long Island/S CT.

On Wednesday, as the storm starts to have less of an influence of the area, less cloud cover is expected with less wind, but at the same time an even stronger arctic air mass will drop down from Canada, headed straight towards the Northeast. This will result in even colder high temperatures, in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland and lower to mid 30s for the rest of the area.

With less cloud cover and a colder air mass, Wednesday night will be the coldest night yet for the area. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid 10s inland, and even a few lower 10s cannot be ruled out if there is less cloud cover than expected, mid 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, upper 10s to lower 20s for S CT, lower to mid 20s in Long Island, and mid 20s in NYC. Thursday will have similar temperatures to Wednesday with mostly to partly sunny skies.

Friday – Saturday: Light Rain/Snow Potential

By Friday, a weak Alberta Clipper is expected to move into the Great Lakes, which will help remove the cold air mass from the region. In the process of doing so, it will spread light precipitation into parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast, and at this time is expected to track north of the area as there should not be as much suppression as we saw with yesterday’s clipper. While this clipper may be warm enough that it rains closer to the coast, further inland there is the potential of snow or a mix, with the potential of light accumulations away from NYC according to the GFS model. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.

On Saturday and Sunday, slightly below average temperatures will continue, however by Sunday there is much more uncertainty with another potential storm in the central US that may affect the area between Sunday and Tuesday. The models are having a lot of difficulty handling the storm, and while it is possible that the storm could be an intense one as some models have been consistently showing, there is a lot of uncertainty with the track, which could range from an offshore storm scenario, to a coastal track with snow along Interstate 95 and NYC, to an inland storm track with rain and warmth for the area. Despite these uncertainties, it is likely that it should get much colder behind this storm as another arctic air mass drops on Sunday/Monday behind this potential storm. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame and what it might bring to the area.

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