Dec 15: Sunday-Monday Storm Update

Today was a mostly cloudy and breezy day across the area, with high temperatures generally in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures will continue to steadily moderate through the week, with highs reaching the upper 30s by Friday and Saturday, and by Sunday, a storm is expected to be offshore but needs to be kept an eye on in case it trends west, and may potentially affect the area.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a partly cloudy day across the area with a west wind expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland and in the lower to mid 30s for the rest of the area.

An Alberta clipper will bring the first significant snowfall of the winter to Virginia, where 4 to 8 inches of snow are expected in parts of the southern and central parts of the state, and while the storm will stay south of NYC for the main part, a few flurries south of NYC are possible on Thursday night.

Friday – Monday: Warmer, Dry First, Followed By Storm Potential

Friday and Saturday are both expected to be warmer as the air mass will not be as cold, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across most of the area. The immediate NYC area may even reach the 40 degree mark on either day.

By Sunday, there is still uncertainty with the models about a potential storm, though they are in agreement that the storm will stay well to the east of the area. Yesterday’s GFS runs, which showed a blizzard for the area, have since trended east, with today’s westernmost model run being the 12z GFS bringing at least 3-6 inches of snow to the immediate NYC area, nothing in comparison to yesterday’s runs which had over a foot of snow for NYC.

Despite this consistency, the models, however, are still inconsistent with the development of the storm, which is leading to each one showing a different track. It may take several days until the models become consistent with this, and once they do, they will likely reach an agreement with the storm track. At this time, it appears that the best chance of a snowstorm could be in central/eastern New England and Maine, but this is still subject to change. Even though a west trend with the models is still possible, at this time it is unlikely that we see the western solutions that the GFS model had yesterday, meaning that the best chance of snow from this storm would likely be south and east of NYC. Stay tuned for more details tomorrow, as well as a scenario map.

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