12/31/10: Uncertainty With Longer Range

Note: The 5-Day Forecast page was not updated tonight, however the forecast remains the same with no changes.

In addition, instead of a long range update, an update for the winter outlook will be posted sometime over the next few days, which includes changes from the original forecast, especially for January.

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Today’s update will only be a brief one, as for the main part there are no changes from yesterday’s forecasts, however there is increasing uncertainty for the medium and longer range starting on Tuesday.

Weekend Outlook:

The NAM and GFS models, which previously were too cold with the forecast highs for tomorrow due to the snow cover, are starting to correct their errors but are still too cold, showing high temperatures only in the mid to upper 30s. The GGEM continues to remain consistent with a warmer solution, and was used for the forecast. High temperatures tomorrow are expected to be in the lower to mid 40s inland, and in the mid to upper 40s for the rest of the area with a light SSW wind expected.

There are no changes from yesterday’s outlook for the weekend, as the cold front is still expected to move through on Saturday night bringing light to occasionally moderate rain, with less than 1/4 inch of rain expected. Temperatures overnight will remain steady, if not slightly rise, and will peak on Sunday in the lower to mid 40s across the area with some upper 40s in the immediate NYC area. An isolated rain or snow shower is possible early on Sunday night, especially in the eastern parts of the area.

Next Week: Cold And Dry Pattern Returns, Uncertainty Returns

By Monday, we are looking at the return of colder temperatures as a cold and mainly dry pattern develops once again, similar in some ways to that of December. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area, slightly rising on Tuesday. By Tuesday, however, uncertainty returns to the forecast as there are several storm potentials which the models are having difficulties handling.

The first potential is on Tuesday night into Wednesday, which some models show a clipper system bringing some light snow showers to the area with the storm intensifying further east. At this time, I am going with mostly cloudy skies with scattered snow showers, however this is a low confidence forecast and is subject to change.

By Friday and the weekend, there is another storm potential that according to some models may be a bigger one than Tuesday’s potential. The GFS, GGEM and ECMWF models show a storm around that time frame, with the ECMWF showing the most extreme scenario with nearly 10 inches of snow for the area and the GGEM the least extreme with an offshore storm, but each model has significant differences when it comes to the development of the storm. It is too early to go into more details on this potential, however there is the potential for a storm to affect the area during this time frame. Stay tuned for more information on this potential storm over the next few days.

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