12/28/10: New Year’s Eve/Day Outlook, Longer Range

Notes:

– The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the area except Long Island/S CT. A full update of the 5-day forecast will likely be posted tomorrow morning.

– The Storm Summary page was updated, with summaries for significant storms from late September through yesterday’s blizzard.

– As many of you have observed, 2010 was an extreme year in weather in the NYC area and in the region, with four historic blizzards in one year, extreme heavy rain storms, strong wind events, several tornadoes in NYC, and extreme heat. As 2010 is coming to an end, I opened a poll about which event this year was the most extreme. Pleave vote your thoughts in the poll, which will close on January 5th.

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Today was a partly cloudy day across the area, with the winds starting to calm down after the strong wind gusts from the blizzard that continued through the day yesterday. Temperatures overnight failed to reach the forecast, and the high temperatures were slightly warmer than expected, however a milder pattern will set up for the next several days, with temperatures even returning into the 40s by Friday.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a mostly sunny day across the area with a generally light west wind as a high pressure approaches the area. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s inland and in the mid 30s for the rest of the area.

Low temperatures tomorrow night, however, will briefly get colder again with a high pressure in place along with mostly clear skies and light winds. There is some slight uncertainty with how cold it gets, with the GFS model the outlier showing temperatures in the single digits across most of the area, however low temperatures are likely to be in the 10s away from the coast.

Thursday And New Year’s Eve: Slowly Warming Up

On Thursday, a storm near the Rockies will develop that will bring a New Year’s Eve snowstorm to the Midwest, which that storm will start to draw in cold air into the western United States, with warmer air into the eastern United States. Even though 850 mb temperatures will be much warmer, some cold air will continue to be trapped over the area, preventing temperatures from rising well into the 50s as such an air mass would usually suggest.

High temperatures will only slowly climb through the week, reaching the mid to upper 30s across the area on Thursday, and in the mid 30s to lower 40s on Friday. New Year’s Eve is expected to be mostly to partly clear with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s inland and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for the immediate NYC area, which is warmer than the previous nights.

New Year’s Day And Beyond: Quiet Pattern To Start January

On Saturday, the storm in the Midwest will start to bring a cold front through the Ohio Valley with rain and thunderstorms. Cold air will still be trapped over the area, and while the GFS model is most likely too cold with keeping high temperatures only in the lower to mid 30s, high temperatures will still not warm up to their full potential, only reaching the upper 30s to mid 40s. As the cold front comes through, it will weaken, bringing cloudy skies and occasional showers to the area on Saturday night into Sunday morning with temperatures steady in the 30s to lower 40s, dropping once the cold front clears the area.

Behind this cold front, a colder air mass will return into the area with high temperatures back into the upper 20s to mid 30s range for Monday, however this cold air mass will not be as strong or as sustained as those we have seen earlier this month, with the core of the cold in Canada. On Tuesday, the cold will weaken, and with no significant storm active near the region, this will lead to a quiet start to January, and at this time there does not appear to be a threat for any significant weather until at least the January 7-10 time frame.

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