Nov 9, 2010: Slowly Warming Up This Week

Notes:

– The 5-Day Forecast page was updated tonight. In addition, expect the “Storm Summary” page to be updated sometime over the next few days with summaries for the significant storms that affected the region over the last month.

– This is a reminder that the polls for the temperature and snow departures in NYC remain open until November 27. So far there are 15 votes for the temperature poll and 17 votes for the snow poll, and the majority is expecting average temperatures and snowfall.

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Today was a partly sunny day for the area, with temperatures being warmer than expected, in the lower to mid 50s inland, mid to upper 50s in the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to upper 50s for Long Island/S CT. Starting tomorrow, temperatures are expected to generally warm up, potentially reaching the lower 60s by Friday/Saturday with dry conditions for the week, however afterwards there are indications that a stormier and a much colder pattern may set up for the northern US for the second half of November.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

As the coastal storm that affected the area yesterday will remain off the coast, a NNE wind is expected for tomorrow, starting out as a north wind in the morning. This will also keep a cool air mass in place, preventing temperatures from rising too much, though tomorrow should be slightly warmer than today. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s for the western parts of the area, and in the lower to mid 50s for the eastern parts of the area. Despite this, it is possible that the temperatures in the immediate NYC area could be a little warmer, with 60 degrees near the warmer spots not out of the question.

Thursday – Saturday: Cooler, Then Warming Up

On Thursday, slightly cooler temperatures are expected for the area as the coastal low starts to push east, away from the region, with a NE wind expected. High temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 50s, potentially upper 40s in Long Island/S CT, lower to mid 50s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 50s further west.

As the storm pushes away from the area, 850 mb temperatures will be able to warm up by Friday, with high temperatures increasing into the mid 50s to lower 60s for most of the area. Meanwhile, a large warm up will build into the Ohio Valley, where high temperatures could rise into the mid 70s in places such as southern Indiana/Illinois.

On Saturday, as a storm takes shape west of the Great Lakes moves northeast, well NW of the area, slightly warmer temperatures are possible, and lower 60s could be more widespread across the area.

Sunday – Tuesday: Cold Front, Then Colder

On Sunday night, a cold front related to the Great Lakes storm is expected to move through the region. Little or no rainfall is expected from this cold front, but it will bring in colder temperatures to the area. The timing of the Great Lakes storm is the main key to this time frame and the storm that may follow, as the cold air is expected to have difficulty reaching the coast as mentioned several days ago. The uncertainty is where the sub-zero 850 mb temperatures will stop advancing east, which at this time I am thinking could be slightly west of the area, but could change, and could end up further east if the faster solution verifies.

At this time, high temperatures have the potential of dropping back into the upper 40s to mid 50s, however as mentioned above, there is still some uncertainty to this and these numbers could change.

Wednesday-Friday (Nov 17-19): Potential Storm

For the last several days, the potential of a storm during this time frame has been mentioned. This is now looking more likely, but the question is where the storm exactly tracks. My previous updates about this storm labeled the potential track range from the western Northeast to a track just off the coast. The storm’s track will likely depend on how far east the cold air can advance before the storm, as the further east the cold air will be, the further east this storm will be. While some snow could be produced out of this storm in its outer edges, this storm is unlikely to produce more than small amounts of snow at this time, as there probably isn’t going to be enough cold air yet to support such a solution. Stay tuned for more details on this potential storm and how it may affect the area.

Longer Range: Another Potential Storm, Then Cold?

For the longer range, the models are consistent with showing a storm affecting the region around November 20-22, and this potential is being watched at this time. While the small details on this potential storm are uncertain at this time, which can be expected at this time range, looking at the pattern, a developing -NAO/-AO are expected, and the models are also showing significant amounts of arctic air dropping out of Canada into the north central US behind this storm. While this is in the longer range and could significant change, what can be taken from this at this time is that a storm may affect the region on November 20-22, and afterwards there is the potential for cold, if not very cold temperatures to affect much of the north central and northeastern United States.

More on this time frame will be discussed over the next several days.

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