Today started out cloudy and wet for the area, with light rain associated with the cold front falling, and as the cold front cleared the area, the skies started to clear by the late afternoon, with high temperatures in the upper 40s inland and in the lower to mid 50s for the rest of the area. With mainly clear skies now in place, temperatures are quickly dropping across the area, and are already in the lower to upper 30s away from NYC. Tonight is expected to be the coldest night so far this fall, with lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s inland, mid to upper 20s for S CT and the north/west suburbs of NYC, in the upper 20s to lower 30s in Long Island, and in the lower to potentially mid 30s in NYC.
Tomorrow will be a chilly day for the area, with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s, however temperatures will continue to warm up through the weekend into Wednesday, when a storm affecting the area could result in heavy rainfall over 1 inch.
Tomorrow will be a mostly sunny day across the area with a west wind expected. Temperatures will be chilly, peaking in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland, lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, mid 40s in NYC, and in the mid to potentially upper 40s in Long Island/S CT.
Looking at the rest of the region, tomorrow should also be a cold day across the Northeast, with high temperatures generally in the 30s to lower 40s, with 20s in the higher elevations of the central/northern Northeast. The central/southern Mid Atlantic should still be chilly but not as cold, with Washington DC in the upper 40s and Virginia in the lower 50s.
Sunday – Monday: Dry, Not As Cold
On Sunday, the trough will start to weaken, however it will still be strong enough to produce another day of cold temperatures, but slightly warmer than those of tomorrow, peaking in the lower to mid 40s inland and in the mid to upper 40s for the rest of the area.
Sunday night will be another cold one with mainly clear skies in place, though Monday will continue the warm up as the trough exits the area and a low pressure organizes itself near the Midwest, with high temperatures returning into the lower 50s for the immediate NYC area.
Tuesday – Wednesday: Heavy Rain, Wind Potential
On Tuesday, a low pressure will organize itself over the Great Lakes, with a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley and the Southeast, associated with heavy rainfall. This cold front will then move towards the area pulling in a warmer air mass, resulting in temperatures rising through Tuesday night, peaking on Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s with windy conditions possible. Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure will develop along the front, producing heavy rain for the area on Wednesday, with over 1 inch of rain likely for most of the area. At this time, I issued a Rain Alert for the area, indicating a less than 30% chance of 1+ inch of rain, however this will likely be upgraded to a watch tomorrow.
The heaviest rain from this storm is expected to be inland, west of the area, where over 3 inches of rain could fall, however there is the potential of 1 to 2 inches of rain for most of the area, with locally 3 inches of rain for the western and potentially central parts of the area. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.
More on the longer range will be posted tomorrow, including a cool down behind this storm and another storm expected for December 4-6.