Nov 11, 2010: Rain Returns For Tuesday/Wednesday

Today was a sunny and chilly day for the area, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s inland, upper 50s in the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 50s in Long Island/S CT. This morning brought chilly temperatures to the area, as low as the mid-upper 20s inland, and tonight will likely bring similar temperatures, with mid to upper 20s inland, and lower to mid 30s for most of the area except for NYC and the immediate coast, which should be in the mid to upper 30s.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a warmer day for the area as a warmer air mass spreads into the area. A NNE wind is expected again for tomorrow. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s, potentially lower 60s inland, lower 60s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 50s in Long Island/S CT.

A much warmer air mass will spread into the Ohio Valley tomorrow, bringing highs into the mid 70s in southern Indiana/Illionis, which will be due to a developing storm near Kansas/Oklahoma that should bring several inches of snow to parts of the Midwest on Saturday.

Saturday – Monday: Dry, Mild

On Saturday, as the warm air mass reaches its peak, temperatures will be at their warmest, with widespread lower to mid 60s expected in northern New Jersey, with the warmest temperatures in the immediate NYC area potentially nearing 65 degrees in the warmer case scenario.

Meanwhile, the storm previously mentioned that should bring snow to the Midwest will bring a cold front into the Ohio Valley, but the cold front will be rather weak with very little rain, and will have a hard time moving east, and will eventually stall near the area on Monday. High temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler than those of Saturday with increasing cloud cover and a NE turning SE wind.

On Monday, the cold front will be near the area, bringing mostly cloudy skies and a chance of a few showers, especially west of NYC, with highs in the mid to upper 50s for most of the area.

Tuesday – Wenesday: Storm Brings Moderate Rain

A low pressure is expected to develop along the stalled cold front on Tuesday near the SE US, which will lead to light to moderate rain spreading into the Mid Atlantic, reaching the area by Tuesday evening. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to potentially upper 50s at this time with a SE wind, though this could slightly change over the next few days.

On Tuesday night, the storm will move northeast, likely taking a track that moves up along the coast, if not slightly inland taking it near NYC by Wednesday morning. This will bring the heaviest rain early on Wednesday into the late morning hours of Wednesday, with rain ending by the evening. Rainfall amounts are uncertain at this time, though there is the potential for at least 1 inch of rain to fall out of this storm, if not higher. Stay tuned for more details on this storm.

Longer Range: Colder Weekend

Once the storm exits, colder conditions will not immediately arrive, but they will be well on their way. A weak clipper entering the Great Lakes is expected to bring snow showers to that region, followed by a trough into the region for Thursday into Saturday. There is uncertainty on the high temperatures, but colder than average temperatures are possible.

By Saturday/Sunday, there is increasing uncertainty with another storm in the central US. There will be cold air in place during this time, but the question is where the storm tracks. If it’s in southern Canada like the GFS is expecting, then the cold air will be quickly pushed out, being replaced with a milder air mass. But if the ECMWF verifies, then the storm would be much further south, keeping the cold air in place and maybe bringing frozen precipitation into the area. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.

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