Sept 30/Oct 1 Storm Review

I apologize for the delay in posting this review again, I have a busy schedule and was not able to finish this when I planned to, but I was able to finish my work on both this summary and the summary of the September NYC tornadoes, which was posted in the “Storm Summary” page.


The late September to early October storm was a significant storm, bringing rainfall amounts as high as 10-15 inches for parts of the Mid Atlantic with damaging wind gusts affecting places further east, such as the NYC area. For days before the storm, it appeared that a potentially dangerous storm was on its way to the East Coast associated with a tropical system, leading to heavy rainfall amounts and strong winds.

As with every other forecast, there was uncertainty until the last minute. In this case, the models were inaccurate with the placement of the heavy rain axis until the last minute, placing it over the area while it ended up being even further west. As a result, the area only saw some heavy rain on the morning of September 30 and several hours of heavy rain in the morning of October 1, with 21 hours of dry and windy conditions in NYC when there could have been heavy rain and wind that whole time, leading to rainfall amounts reaching the 7-10 inch range.



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