Oct 8, 2010: Slight Forecast Revisions

No full update will be posted today, as yesterday’s discussion mainly sums up the points for the forecast, however there are some changes to the forecast which I will discuss in more details below. The 5-Day Forecast was also updated tonight.

The next update will be posted on Sunday.

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Saturday Night: Frost/Freeze Alerts Issued

The models have remained consistent for Saturday night’s temperatures, and with no major trend likely, I went slightly lower than yesterday’s forecast, putting lows in the mid (potentially lower) 30s inland, upper 30s to lower 40s for the N/W suburbs of NYC, mid to upper 30s for southern Connecticut, upper 30s to lower 40s for Long Island, and upper 40s to lower 50s for NYC. With this change, I added frost alerts for most of the area, and a freeze watch for the interior.

Sunday’s forecast remains the same, with highs in the mid 60s inland and mid-upper 60s for the immediate NYC area.

Monday – Tuesday: Cooler Solution Now Expected

In yesterday’s discussion, I mentioned how the models were trending colder, and while I slightly lowered my forecast temperatures, I stayed with the milder solutions. This now does not appear to be likely, as another trough that was at first not shown on the model solutions is expected to drop into the Northeast on Monday, bringing cool temperatures inland and chilly temperatures for the area, with highs in the mid to upper 60s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s for the immediate NYC area. These temperatures are still subject to some slight changes with Sunday’s update, but for the main part it now appears that a chilly scenario is likely for Monday.

On Monday night, a weak storm will move through the area, bringing light rain with amounts less than 1/4 inch.

For Tuesday, due to the storm exiting from the area and the trough still around, high temperatures have been lowered once again, now expected to be similar to those of Monday. The GFS has cooler temperatures for Tuesday, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, however at this time I am thinking that it is too cool, especially if it is potentially underestimating the warmth to the west (more on that below).

Wednesday – Friday Update:

On Wednesday, the set up I talked about yesterday in the potential storm section will be starting to develop, and a warm air mass could move over the region. The GGEM is showing temperatures into the 70s, with the ECMWF also mild, but I am thinking that the GFS could be underestimating this warm up, showing highs in the mid 60s. While that is also possible, for now I am leaning with the warmer solutions, though this is still subject to change with Sunday’s update.

The storm is then shown on the models for Thursday and Friday, however it may not be able to fully develop into a nor’easter and could simply be a light rain storm ahead of a trough. Despite uncertainty with the storm, it is likely that a trough moves into the Northeast, potentially bringing cooler temperatures to the area for Thursday and Friday. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.

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