Oct 6: Warmer Temperatures Returning

As the storm redeveloped with heavy rain to the north and NE of the area, the southern cut off line for the rain was sharper than expected, leading to partly sunny skies in parts of the area today. Tonight, clouds are moving into the area again, potentially producing an isolated shower or two, but for the main part, the area is now expected to be dry again until Tuesday, when the next storm is possible.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring clearing skies to the area, with windy conditions possibly developing by the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s inland, and upper 60s to lower 70s for the rest of the area. A west wind is expected throughout the day.

Friday – Sunday: Mild, Dry

The trough that was originally expected to affect the area shifted slightly further north. While on the map, that doesn’t look too significant, it has changed the scenario for the area, with a nearly week-long stretch of above average temperatures now expected. Friday’s highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the area, with mid to upper 60s in Long Island/S CT.

On Saturday, the trough causes temperatures in the Northeast to drop, but the area will stay mild, with highs similar to those of Friday. Sunday will be a little cooler, but will bring mild overnight lows as a warm air mass approaches the area.

Monday – Tuesday: Significant Yet Brief Warm Up

Yesterday, I mentioned that the models are now showing a potential significant warm spell for early-mid next week. This now appears to be more likely, with a low pressure expected to move into the Great Lakes and a frontal boundary close to the storm, well to the north of the area, leading to a warm air mass spreading into the region. 850 mb temperatures may approach 15c, leading to high temperatures on Monday potentially reaching the lower 80s as the DGEX has been suggesting. This would be over 10 degrees above average.

The storm will then move into the Northeast for Tuesday, bringing rain for the area and cooler temperatures. There is still some uncertainty with the storm, with some models being suppressed and others too far north, but this storm is likely to bring cooler air behind it. The question at this time is if the storm will end the stretch of above average temperatures which is expected to start tomorrow. Stay tuned for more details on this warm up and storm.

Brief tropics update:

Subtropical Storm Otto has developed early today, and is currently a strong subtropical storm, with sustained winds near 60 mph. It will intensify a little more, and should peak as a strong subtropical/tropical storm, if not a minimal hurricane, before starting to become more extra-tropical. Otto is not a threat to land, however it may affect the Azores as an extra-tropical storm.

Leave a Reply