Oct 5: Cloudy Conditions To End On Thursday

The storm, despite weakening, continued to produce scattered showers for the area and heavy rain inland, and even had an eye-like feature earlier today before moving onshore near western Long Island. As I mentioned 2 days ago, it got cold enough this morning in the mountains of West Virginia that snow fell in these places, and there are even some reports of possible accumulations there.

The worst of the storm is over for most of the area, except for eastern Connecticut which will be seeing heavy rain tomorrow, up to 3/4 inch as the storm’s heavy rain pushes northwest from SE Massachusetts through central New York and northeast of that line, and drier weather will return and stay for the next week.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Most of the area will be seeing cloudy skies tomorrow with a few showers, with moderate rain for eastern Connecticut. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland, and the lower to mid 60s for the rest of the area.

Thursday And Beyond: Dry, But Temperatures Uncertain

As the storm intensifies while moving away into Canada, skies will clear on Thursday, leading to warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 60s for most of the area. Some lower 70s are possible in the immediate NYC area.

The models yesterday showed a strong trough moving into the Northeast. Today’s models, however, now show the area staying with mild temperatures through Saturday. This, however, does not mean that no cool down is expected for this time range. The models are having a hard time handling the trough, with varying solutions on the small details such as how far south it expands, but what is certain is that a trough will move into the Northeast. The NYC area happens to be in the southern edge of the trough, and any slight shift could make the forecast warmer or colder by several degrees.

For today’s update, I went warmer with Friday, expecting lower to mid 70s for NYC, but Saturday night to Sunday are expected to be the coolest days. While there is relatively low-moderate confidence on the forecast for that time range at this time, I went with lows in the upper 30s inland and lower-upper 40s in the immediate NYC area and highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, but note that these numbers are subject to change.

For early-mid next week, it appears that we may be seeing a warm up, with highs potentially well into the 70s according to a few models, but especially with the models’ poor performance lately, there is low confidence on this time frame. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.

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