Oct 4: Chilly Week Continues, Cold Weekend?

**This week, I will update the website, but in some cases such as today, the updates won’t be as detailed as they usually would be.**

Summary Of This Week: Cool, Rainy

Bands of moderate to heavy rain went through the area today, bringing rainfall amounts into the range of 1/4 to 1/2 inch for parts of the area. Temperatures were chilly today, with highs only in the mid 50s in NYC and lower 50s inland, and are expected to remain steady tonight. Due to the position of the storm, however, we are seeing the trough dig deep into the southern US, with the Gulf coast expected to be colder than New York City tonight. The same goes for tomorrow night, as central New Jersey and the Mid Atlantic will be seeing lows in the lower to mid 40s, while New York City sees lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The storm is now weakening, and while it will remain stationary offshore, only occasional showers are expected, with light amounts through tomorrow. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s inland and lower 60s in the immediate NYC area. On Wednesday, a low pressure offshore will intensify and move more inland, however it will be to the north/east of New York City, bringing a round of heavy rain to New England with 1 to 2 inches of rain possible. Some light rain will fall in most of the area, with the heaviest rain focused towards eastern Long Island/Connecticut. The rain will end by Thursday morning.

Friday-Weekend: Cold Or Warm?

Some model solutions at first suggested that we could see a mild weekend. The latest models, however, are in a strong agreement and suggest that a trough will move into the region, bringing chilly temperatures for Friday and Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s and low temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s. There is still some uncertainty on this time frame, and it is possible that the models back off of this cold spell, however with such strong agreement in the medium range, unlike yesterday’s cool spell when by the medium range the models backed off from the big cold spell idea, and a negative NAO/AO expected, it is becoming more likely that we could be seeing a cool down. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.

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