Oct 24, 2010: Above Average Temps Until Wednesday

Note: I finished working on my preliminary Winter 2010-2011 outlook, it will likely be posted tomorrow in the late afternoon or evening hours.

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Today was a mostly cloudy day for most of the area, with warmer temperatures as a warm front moved through the region, bringing in a much warmer air mass with 850 mb temperatures rising over 10c for the first time in the last few weeks. Widespread light rain showers fell across most of the area during at least one part of the day, with heavier precipitation further north into central/northern New York, where snow also fell in the higher elevations.

The warm front will continue to push northeast, eliminating any significant cold air from the region, leaving most of the United States with a mild pattern, but a storm current in the NW US will change all of that in the middle of the week, bringing thunderstorms on Wednesday followed by a cold front which will end the week on a cold note.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies to the area with warmer temperatures. High temperatures will be in the lower 70s inland, lower to mid 70s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 60s for Long Island/S CT. A SW wind is expected.

Tomorrow night, a widespread area of rain and thunderstorms will move through the region. While the rain and thunderstorms will generally be light to moderate, with rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch, locally heavier thunderstorms are expected, which could bring up to 1 inch of rain to parts of the area. That potential will be mentioned in more details with tomorrow’s update.

Tuesday – Wednesday: Much Warmer, Thunderstorms For Weds

There are no changes with the expected set up for this storm, which has been discussed in more details in yesterday’s post, and with it being in the short range, no significant changes are likely to the expected scenario. The low pressure will rapidly strengthen on Monday night, peaking on Tuesday night in northern Minnesota near 955 mb, the intensity of a Category 3 hurricane, leading to strong wind gusts in parts of the Midwest as well as heavy rainfall.

The area will see dry conditions on Tuesday and Tuesday night, but with unusually mild temperatures, with Tuesday’s highs in the mid to upper 70s in NYC, and overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s across most of the area.

On Wednesday, the cold front will move through the region, bringing rain and thunderstorms, locally heavy, and a few storms may be strong with gusty winds. High temperatures will be in the mid to potentially upper 70s in the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 70s inland.

Thursday – Friday: Brief Cold Spell

On Thursday, the cold front will be east of the area, but mild temperatures will briefly persist, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the immediate NYC area and in the mid 60s inland. On Thursday night, however, the trough will start to move into the area, and despite the cold air mass having moderated to the point where 850 mb temperatures are barely below 0c, colder temperatures are still likely, with low temperatures on Thursday night dropping into the 40s for most of the area and 30s inland, including parts of the N/W suburbs of NYC.

Friday will be a colder day, with 850 mb temperatures near -1c, and comparing the air mass to the one we had on Friday the 22nd, when 850 mb temperatures were near -4c, this would mean that high temperatures will be slightly warmer than those of the 22nd, potentially in the lower 50s inland and in the mid 50s for the immediate NYC area. Friday night would then be the coldest night, with lows potentially in the lower 30s inland and in the mid 30s for the N/W suburbs of NYC and in Long Island/S CT. Note that these forecast temperatures are still subject to change as there is still some uncertainty with the intensity of the trough and the timing.

Saturday And Beyond: Warmer, Then Another Storm Possible

By Saturday, however, it is likely that the cold air mass exits the region. A weak low pressure in the north central US will be moving east, and is likely to stay to the north of the area, meaning that it will help to draw in a mild air mass while pushing the trough out of the region, like what today’s low pressure in the north central US was doing in some ways. The storm could bring some light rain for Halloween, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies are likely with warmer temperatures than Saturday, potentially in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Attention then turns to the central US, where like this week’s pattern in some ways, it is possible that a storm could form in the first 1-2 days of November and move NE, well NW of the area, bringing in a colder air mass into the United States again which would move towards the area. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.

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