Oct 15, 2010: Colder Pattern In Control This Week

The storm’s rain ended in the overnight hours, with at least 1-2 inches of rain for parts of the area, but the storm’s wind only started during the afternoon hours, with gusts occasionally reaching 40 mph in the central and eastern parts of the area. Windy conditions will continue through tomorrow, with a less windy and warmer Sunday, but from Monday and on, a cooler, much more fall-like pattern will set up across the Northeast and stay for the week.

Weekend Outlook:
Tomorrow will be a mostly cloudy and windy day, with winds from the northwest. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s inland, lower 60s for the immediate NYC area, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s for Long Island/S CT. Chilly temperatures are expected for tomorrow night, in the mid 30s inland and upper 30s to lower 40s for the N/W suburbs of NYC.

Sunday will briefly warm up as the trough exits the area, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s inland, upper 60s for the immediate NYC area, and mid 60s for Long Island/S CT, with a WSW wind expected, however this warm up will be short lived as a trough moves into the Northeast for Monday.

Monday – Wednesday Outloook:

As a trough moves into the Northeast on Monday, high temperatures will drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s, however things will only get colder from there. A cold front will stall to the south of the area, around Maryland/Virginia, with a wave of low pressure moving along the front. A cold air mass will be to the north, with a warm air mass bringing high temperatures in the upper 70s to the south of the cold front, in Virginia.

This wave of low pressure will be close enough to the cold air mass to bring a cold rain to the northern Mid Atlantic and southern Northeast. There is uncertainty on how cold the high temperatures will be, the current models show highs in the lower to mid 40s. For now I went warmer than the models, expecting highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s, but this is still subject to change. Light to moderate rain will fall during the day, and it may be cold enough that a little snow falls in the Catskills, however this potential is still uncertain.

On Wednesday, some showers are still possible with slightly warmer temperatures, but meanwhile a low pressure may start to move into the Great Lakes, bringing a strong trough along with it that could affect the area on Friday and Saturday. There is still a lot of uncertainty on this time period, though a negative NAO/AO suggest that a trough could in fact move into the Northeast. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.

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