Oct 11, 2010 Severe Thunderstorms

***NYC Area Weather has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the interior and the immediate NYC Area. Even though storm updates will be posted, please refer to the National Weather Service for the latest alerts and warnings.***

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**Note: Click on the short term outlook maps to the right of each storm update to view them in a larger size.**

9:10 PM: The severe thunderstorms are currently in southwestern Long Island, focusing near JFK, and moving ESE and out to sea. Light to moderate rain and thunder will affect central/eastern Long Island, with locally heavy storms also expected.

The storm coverage has ended for today. Stay tuned for tonight’s update, which will be posted by 10 PM.

8:20 PM: The storm has changed directions. It is now moving more SE than ESE, now putting all of Hudson (NJ), Brooklyn, and parts of Queens and southern Manhattan in the path of this storm. Again, this is a very dangerous storm. Take cover if you are in the path of this storm.

Another severe thunderstorm has formed in northern Somerset county, NJ, moving ESE. This storm will affect Linden, NJ and parts of Staten Island, producing strong wind gusts, small hail, and heavy rain.

8:05 PM: WARNING: A severe thunderstorm currently in eastern Morris county is moving ESE, and will affect eastern Passaic, southern Bergen (including Fort Lee), Brooklyn, Manhattan, Hudson, and Queens over the next 1/2 to 1 hour. Expect damaging wind gusts, moderate to potentially severe hail, and very heavy rainfall with this storm. An isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out.

This is a very dangerous storm. Take cover if you are in this storm’s path.

6:59 PM: The storms are currently moving east, and have weakened quickly. Most of the storms are no longer severe, though most of them are still producing thunder and moderate to light rain, locally heavy.

5:50 PM: An area of severe thunderstorms is currently located in northeastern Pennsylvania, and is moving to the ESE/SE. This storm is capable of producing strong wind gusts, small to moderate hail, and rainfall amounts up to 3/4 inch in a short period of time. While no tornado is currently expected, the storm did briefly show a tornado vortex signature earlier this hour.

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3:28 PM: An unexpected change took place in the forecast, and the storm currently approaching the area is producing severe thunderstorms ahead of it, currently in central Pennsylvania moving ESE towards New Jersey. While the severe storms are not likely to affect the entire area, they are likely to affect at least parts of the area, mainly the western and southern parts.

There is enough instability to support these storms maintaining strong to severe intensity while moving into New Jersey, but the storms are travelling in an ESE motion, indicating that they are going to mainly affect eastern Pennsylvania and central/northern New Jersey. The main risk with these storms is strong to damaging wind gusts and small hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Impact: Expect these storms to arrive around 5-6 PM, and affect New Jersey and New York City. Even though the storms will likely have the greatest impact on central/central western New Jersey, New York City could still see thunderstorms. Long Island and southern Connecticut will see less of an impact, with eastern Connecticut being the least likely place to be affected by these severe thunderstorms.

Storm updates will be posted if needed later this afternoon.

Evening Update: Potential Nor’easter?

Yesterday, I did not focus on the forecast specifics for this coming week as the update focused on the storm review, though for the last few days, I mentioned the potential of a coastal storm to affect the area between Thursday and Friday. Stay tuned for a full update later tonight, focusing on a strong nor’easter that may affect the area on Friday, potentially bringing heavy rain and windy conditions along with chilly temperatures to the area. Details will also be included on a tropical cyclone expected to form shortly in the Caribbean, which will be named Tropical Storm Paula.

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