Oct 11, 2010: Heavy Rain, Wind Possible For Friday

Severe thunderstorms moved through the area this evening, bringing wind and hail damage to places near New York City. Before the storms, it was a mainly sunny, mild day with highs in the 70s. Today, however, was the last mild day for a while. Tomorrow will bring light rain and chilly temperatures to the area, and a trough will then affect the area through Thursday. On Friday, a strong nor’easter may affect the area, potentially bringing heavy rain, windy conditions, and even accumulating wet snow to the higher elevations of the Northeast.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a mainly cloudy day with light rain expected mainly before noon. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s inland, upper 60s in the immediate NYC area, and mid 60s in Long Island/S CT. A north wind is expected.

Wednesday – Thursday: Chilly, Dry

A trough will move into the area on Wednesday, and while it will not be very strong, it will be enough to cool temperatures even more, into the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and in Long Island/S CT, with lower to mid 60s in the immediate NYC area. Thursday is expected to be slightly warmer in Long Island/S CT, similar temperatures in NYC, and colder temperatures inland, with increasing cloud cover.

Thursday Night – Saturday: Strong Nor’easter Potential

Over the last few days, I mentioned in my discussion that with the pattern setting up, a -PNA leading to a west coast ridge and a trough dropping into the central United States, that a coastal storm could form along the coast of the Mid Atlantic. The models have now trended towards this solution, and while there is uncertainty on where the storm develops, it is likely that the storm goes through rapid intensification on Thursday night, stalls near New England on Friday, then starts to slowly head northeast again on Saturday.

This storm will react with the trough to its northwest, which would lead to cold air entering the storm. As a result, if this solution verifies, the area would see a cold, heavy wind-driven rain, with high temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s, and 1-3 inches of rain are possible with the heaviest rain on Thursday night. The storm could draw in enough cold air to produce accumulating wet snow in the higher elevations of the western Northeast. Behind the storm, a cold air mass would then enter the Mid Atlantic, leading to high temperatures in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s on Saturday, with a warmer air mass returning for Sunday.

There is still uncertainty with this storm as it only recently showed up on the models, and while some trending is expected, it is likely that an intense storm will be present during this time frame, potentially having a significant impact on the area. Stay tuned for more details on this storm and how it may affect the area.

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