Oct 1: Storm Review, Outlook For Next Week

Note: As I am planning an extensive, detailed storm review, I will not post it tonight, but rather tomorrow, sometime before my evening update.

In addition, the 5-Day Forecast has been updated tonight. I am testing out a new feature, where I include a brief and easier to understand discussion than the one in the front page, which can be found in the bottom of the 5-Day Forecast page.There are currently no alerts in effect for the area.

Weekend Outlook: Chilly, But Not As Cold As First Thought

Scenario: About a week ago, I mentioned the possibility of a significant cool spell to start October. That idea was a very possible one, however both the storm that affected the area and a low pressure in the Great Lakes changed the whole scenario.

To the left, I posted the scenario that was supposed to happen at first, one that typically supports a strong cool spell. A high pressure from Canada moves towards the Northeast, and brings down a strong cold air mass with it, spreading into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 20s to lower 40s. Winds would typically come out of the northwest to north. Any storms in the Atlantic Ocean would have stayed well offshore.

The tropical system, however, already put the cold front further west than it could’ve been, which if that scenario was to verify with nothing else disrupting the cold air mass, it would have still gotten cold, but not as cold as mentioned above. But then comes in a weak low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. While it may seem to be not important, with only light rain for that area, this low pressure will keep the cold air well to the northwest of the area, blocking it from moving into the region.

Weekend Outlook: This would keep a chilly but not as cold air mass in place, with highs for this weekend in the area in the lower to upper 60s, and low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland, lower to mid 40s in the immediate N/W suburbs of NYC and S CT, mid to upper 40s in Long Island, and upper 40s to lower 50s in NYC. North winds are expected on Saturday, with NE winds on Sunday.

Due to this set up, however, the storms in the Atlantic now have a path into the United States instead of staying well out to sea. Keep an eye on this storm, as it will result in a very chilly, cloudy and wet Monday through Wednesday.

Monday – Wednesday: Chilly, Cloudy, And Wet

A storm expected to be offshore on Sunday will start to advance north then a little NNW, approaching the Mid Atlantic by Sunday night, with light rain starting. This low pressure will then stay just offshore around Monday, and will stay in place until at least Wednesday, when it should begin to move away. As this is a low pressure to the east of the area, with a chilly air mass to the west of the storm, this will lead to a steady light to modertate, chilly rain between Monday and Wednesday.

While rainfall amounts are still uncertain, there is the potential for at least 1/2 to 1 inch of rain to fall, however these totals are preliminary and are subject to change with tomorrow’s update. Due to the cloud cover and rain, high temperatures will be very chilly, in the mid to potentially lower 50s inland and mid to upper 50s for the rest of the area on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will slowly warm up, but will still bring below average high temperatures. Stay tuned for more details on this storm and what it may bring to the area.

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