This morning was a chilly one across the area as a trough moves in, and this will also be reflected with today’s highs, which will only reach the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area. Temperatures will warm up again during the weekend into early next week, only to go down again by mid-late next week with a significant cool down that will bring the coolest temperatures so far this fall.
Today will be a mostly cloudy day across the area with a gusty NW wind. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s to potentially lower 70s inland, lower to potentially mid 70s in the immediate NYC area, and the lower to mid 70s for Long Island and S CT.
Looking at New England and the rest of New York, high temperatures will generally be in the 60s, with lower 70s in the south/eastern parts of the NE, and 50s in the mountains, where rain is expected. In Virginia, high temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s with dry conditions expected.
Tonight – Saturday: Very Chilly Nights
Tonight will be cooler than this morning, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s inland, upper 40s to lower 50s for S CT and the N/W suburbs of NYC, lower to mid 50s for Long Island, and the mid to upper 50s for NYC. The cooler spots in eastern Long Island will likely reach the upper 40s.
Friday will be another chilly day, with similar temperatures to today, but the overnight hours will be even cooler, with low temperatures in the mid, potentially lower 40s inland, upper 40s to lower 50s for S CT and the N/W suburbs of NYC, lower 50s for Long Island, and mid 50s for NYC.
I made very little changes to my forecast for this time period, except for lowering the temperatures on Sunday to the lower to mid 70s for the area due to the cloud cover and rain. Rainfall amounts between 0.2 and 0.4 inch are expected, with amounts locally as high as 3/4 inch possible.
Monday will be dry with temperatures similar to those of Saturday, with Tuesday potentially slightly warmer as a cold front approaches, bringing scattered showers but very little rain.
Wednesday – Significant Cool Down Starts
As I mentioned over the last few days, a significant cool down is expected to start on Wednesday, as a strong trough moves in and brings 850 mb temperatures between 2c and 6c. Based on this, the average temperatures for this time of the year, the expected pattern and looking some at the models, I am thinking that high temperatures in the lower to upper 60s are possible across the area, with low temperatures in the upper 30s possible inland, with mid-upper 40s for most of the immediate NYC area. This can still change, though these are my current thoughts. The GFS model is very cold with this, bringing high temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s and lows in the 30s to lower 40s, however this is most likely too cold, considering the GFS has a cold bias. Stay tuned for more details on this cool down.
Brief Tropics Update: Igor in the eastern Atlantic Ocean has weakened, and is almost a tropical depression. There is still uncertainty on Igor’s future, as it is uncertain where it ends up in the longer range with a very large range, and while I think it is unlikely at this time, I will keep an eye on Igor in case the track shifts towards the area.