Sept 8: Chilly Long Range, But Will Tropics Return?

Note: The 5-Day Forecast was updated today for the area. I am also trying an experimental thing where I add the lowest and highest temperature of the week, as well as the potential temperature range. I will try this for a week before deciding whether to keep it or not.

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As a cold front moved through the area, despite a few morning showers, today was another hot day for parts of the area, with Newark, NJ reaching the lower 90s again, making this their 52nd day of 90+ degrees. Fortunately, relief is already on the way as a trough moves into the region, bringing high temperatures into the upper 60s to mid 70s, and low temperatures in the 40s inland for Thursday and Friday.

While things will warm up by early next week, there is the potential for a rather large cool down, but at the same time, we may have to watch the tropics once again, as Tropical Storm Igor may try to take an Earl-like track and approach the East Coast as a hurricane in the longer range.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow (Thursday) will be a partly cloudy day with a NW wind expected. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, lower 70s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, lower to mid 70s for NYC, and the lower to mid 70s for S CT and Long Island. An isolated shower is possible for the northern parts of the area, however any shower should be light at best.

Friday And Saturday Outlook:

Thursday and Friday nights will be chilly for the area again, with low temperatures in the mid to potentially upper 40s inland, lower 50s for the NW suburbs of NYC and S CT, mid 50s for Long Island, and mid to upper 50s for NYC. Friday’s highs will be similar to those of tomorrow, with Saturday warming up, with upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area and mid-upper 70s elsewhere.

Sunday – Tuesday: Stormy, Then Clearing

Parts of the area have note seen measurable rainfall for almost 15 days, but the dry conditions won’t last for long, however. A low pressure related to Hermine’s remnants will move through the area, bringing light to moderate rain and storms. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, though a widespread heavy rain event is unlikely. Amounts will likely range from 0.1 to 0.4 inch, with amounts locally as high as 3/4 or potentially 1 inch in the heavier showers. With a SE onshore wind, temperatures will stay in the mid 70s for the highs. Note that I could lower the forecast temperatures with my next update.

By Monday, the storm will clear the area, and temperatures will warm up again to the upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area and mid to upper 70s for the rest of the area for Monday and Tuesday, with dry conditions for Monday. A low pressure could form to our north on Tuesday, enhancing the rain to our north and bringing warmer temperatures than expected for the area, however this is still uncertain and will be watched. Otherwise, a cold front will pass through, with scattered showers.

Wednesday And Beyond: Significant Cool Down, Tropics?

By Wednesday, a large trough will move into the area, with high temperatures cooling down into the 60s and 70s for the northern Mid Atlantic. There is uncertainty with the intensity of the cool air mass and the coldest day, but it is possible that the coldest high temperatures could be in the mid-upper 60s for the area, with low temperatures in the 40s as far as the immediate NYC area. More details on this will come over the next few days.

Meanwhile, however, a potentially intense hurricane Igor will be in the Atlantic Ocean, close to the Leeward Islands. If the trough can hold itself long enough and Igor is far north enough, it will likely recurve out to sea, and at this time, I am thinking that Igor could stay out to sea, especially with a -NAO pattern likely preventing a direct East Coast hit, but this is still in the longer range and can still change. Stay tuned for more details on Igor.

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