As a warm air mass spread into the area today, with 850 mb temperatures near 15c-18c, temperatures reached the 90s again for parts of the immediate NYC area, making this the 51st day of 90+ degrees in Newark, NJ this year. This potential was already noted over the last week, including the return of hot temperatures to the Mid Atlantic, where Washington DC reached the mid 90s. Tomorrow could bring another day of lower 90s for the Mid Atlantic up to NYC, however this will be one of, if not the last time that the area reaches the 90s until next year.
As a cold front approaches the area, high temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s inland, mid to upper 80s for the immediate NYC area with a few 90 degree readings possible, and with a SW turning WSW wind, Long Island and S CT will reach the mid 80s.
Some rain is possible tomorrow from the cold front, with isolated thunderstorms expected, however any rainfall will be light, as most of the storm’s rainfall will be focused well to our north.
Thursday – Saturday: Cooler Again
By Thursday, a much cooler air mass will move into the area. While I was not able to update the 5-Day Forecast tonight, I am lowering my forecast temperatures for Friday and Friday night, now expecting Friday’s highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland and lower to potentially 70s for the immediate NYC area. Overnight lows will be very chilly, with lows in the mid 40s (possibly lower 40s) for the interior areas, upper 40s to lower 50s for the NW suburbs of NYC, mid to upper 50s for NYC, upper 40s to lower 50s for S CT, and lower to mid 50s for Long Island. Thursday will be slightly warmer than Friday, with Saturday warming up more, with high temperatures reaching the lower 80s for the immediate NYC area.
Sunday Storm, Longer Range Significant Cool Spell?
A storm is likely to affect the area around Sunday, related to the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine, however most of the rain will stay to our north. High temperatures will likely be in the upper 70s to lower 80s due to the cloud cover and rain, but could get warmer.
Afterwards, there is increasing uncertainty with what happens between Monday and Wednesday (September 13-15), as another storm could form and bring another cold front for Wednesday and a brief yet significant warm up, or there is no storm and a strong cool air mass approaches from Canada. Whether the first or the second scenario verify, with the expected pattern of a -NAO/-AO/+PNA, a cool spell is likely starting the 15th and lasting a few days, and could be the strongest yet this fall. The GFS is most likely too strong with this cold air mass, with 850 mb temperatures near 0c and highs in the upper 50s and lows in the mid-upper 30s north and west of NYC, but based on the models likely to moderate a little more and climatology, I am thinking that high temperatures could be in the mid-upper 60s for NYC during this time frame, with lows in the 40s. Stay tuned for more details on this potential cool down.