3:14 PM: This morning, very heavy rain and thunderstorms fell in parts of the area, bringing up to 1.25 inch in the immediate NYC area, but most of Long Island and parts of southern Connecticut got less than 1/4 inch. As the storm ended up today slightly west of the forecast, and with the models late last night having introduced a dry slot for NYC, the area has stayed mainly dry for the last 6 hours as all of the rain is to the west, with parts of Virginia and Maryland soaked with nearly 10 inches of rain. As more will come for these areas, those places could easily exceed 10 inches of rain.
Don’t be mistaken by this windy and dry afternoon, however; the worst has yet to come. Yesterday, I mentioned that a second round could bring the heaviest rain to NYC/Long Island, which is now the expected scenario. Rain will start affecting the area from west to east later today, along with increasing winds, but New York City likely won’t see much more than light rain until 10 PM to 12 AM.
Afterwards, the low pressure associated with Nicole’s remnants will move up the coast, and according to the latest models, will pass slightly east of NYC, leading to very heavy rain affecting parts of Long Island, NYC and all of New Jersey. If this scenario verifies, there is the potential for 4 to 7 inches of rain to affect the areas mentioned above late tonight, with strong wind gusts up to 60 mph possible, especially in Long Island. The NAM and GFS are showing much lighter amounts, however as we have seen in Maryland and Virginia, more than several inches of rain can fall in a short period of time, especially with a lot of moisture, as we are currently seeing.
Stay tuned for another update later tonight to see whether anything has changed or if the area is still expected to see heavy rain late tonight.