Sept 29 Noon: Thoughts On TS Nicole

***This is not the final forecast for Nicole yet. This post is meant to represent my current thoughts and planning for my final forecast, which will be posted by 7 PM tonight.***

Today started out as a mainly sunny day, but quickly turned mainly cloudy ahead of a storm that will bring the heaviest rain to the area since the March nor’easters. In the radar image to the left, rain is already starting to move up the Mid Atlantic, which could start affecting the area by tonight, however the heaviest has yet to come.

Tropical Depression 16 has been named Nicole earlier today, the 13th named storm of this hurricane season. Nicole’s center is currently between Bermuda and the Bahamas. For tomorrow, it appears that Nicole could not be the storm to affect the area, but rather a low pressure forming ahead of Nicole will do so, tracking just west of NYC.

Potential Rain/Wind Totals:

The solution mentioned above, supported by the recent models, will bring heavy rain for the area, with 1-2 inches in Long Island/S CT (with lesser amounts further east), 2-4 inches for the immediate NYC area, and 3-5 inches inland during the day on Thursday. If I was to go by the latest models, then Nicole’s center would come through on Thursday night, bringing 1-2 inches inland, 2-3 inches for the immediate NYC area, and 2-4 inches for Long Island/S CT. This would lead to a total of 4-7 inches inland, 4-7 inches for NYC, and 3-6 inches for Long Island/S CT. Note that these rainfall amounts are only according to the latest solutions, and could change when I post my final forecast later tonight.

What I posted above was mainly based on the latest models, which trended east of yesterday’s runs. Every model now shows most of the area with over 3 inches of rain, with the GGEM showing 7-8 inches of rain in NYC. The models are also showing strong winds for the central/eastern parts of the area, with sustained winds between 30-45 mph and gusts up to 50-60 mph possible. It is still possible, however, that we see a different outcome, as there is still some uncertainty. After seeing today’s late afternoon model runs, which will come out in the next 2-3 hours, and putting in some of my thoughts about which scenario could take place, I will post the final forecast for Nicole by 7 PM.

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