Sept 27: Tropical Storm Conditions Possible Thursday

Notes:

– There are currently three alerts in effect, a Rain Warning and a Severe Thunderstorm Alert for the entire area tomorrow, and a Heavy Rain Watch for Thursday for the potential tropical/extra-tropical cyclone that will likely affect the East Coast. If this will still be tropical when affecting the area, a tropical storm watch may be needed.

– The 5-Day Forecast has been updated tonight. For those who find the discussion in the main page too complex to understand, you can read the alerts currently active for more details on the potential scenarios.

– The poll for how much rain will fall until tomorrow has been closed, with a total of 8 votes. There are 3 votes for 1/2-1″ and 1-2″ each, 1 vote for 2-4″, and 1 vote for 4+”. A new poll has been opened, about the potential effects of 96L (potential Nicole) on the area. Vote your thoughts on the poll, which ends on Wednesday.

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What is going to be a very busy week started today with widespread light to moderate rain moving into the area. Rain totals so far are generally between 1/2 and 1 inch, with heavy rain to move into the area tonight and tomorrow, bringing another 1 to 2 inches of rain.

While Wednesday will be drier, relief will only be short as a tropical storm will likely move up the East Coast, bringing an additional several inches of rain and strong winds to the area, only to be followed by a significant cool spell with frosts and freeze for the interior.

Tonight And Tomorrow’s Outlook:

While the area is currently dry, rain is expected to move into the area once again late tonight, and will be locally heavy. This locally heavy rain will generally continue until tomorrow, when thunderstorms, locally strong with gusty winds, are expected. The rain will then end by late tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures tonight will be steady, if not rise due to the warm air mass entering the area, then peak in the lower to upper 70s tomorrow.

By the time that the storm is over, an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected for the area, putting the storm total as much as 3 inches in some places.

Wednesday – Friday: Tropical Storm Moves Up The East Coast

As I mentioned yesterday, the models are now trending towards a solution where a tropical system forming in the northern Caribbean and moving towards Florida affects the entire East Coast directly. This solution is now much more consistent, with a lot of models showing a direct hit over New York City, somewhere between Tracks 1 and 2 from yesterday. With the consistency with the models, and the expected pattern, that is the scenario I decided to use for today’s forecast.

With that said, if this solution verifies, this could be a potentially damaging storm for the East Coast. Heavy rainfall with a widespread 2-4 inches and amounts locally as high as 5-6 inches could affect the coast from North Carolina through New Jersey into New England, with tropical storm force winds for NYC and strong TS force winds for eastern New England and Long Island possible if the GFS solutions verify, as these places would be east of the storm track, where the wind is usually the bigger threat rather than rain.

For now, in my 5-Day Forecast, I included heavy rain and 2-4 inches during Thursday. The storm is likely to move in during Wednesday night, and move out late Thursday night. It is still possible that the storm goes out to sea like the ECMWF is showing, however this possibility is becoming less likely. Stay tuned for more details as coverage on this potential tropical cyclone and how it may affect the area continues over the next few days.

Saturday – Monday: Significant Cool Down, First Freeze For Interior?

After potential Nicole moves out of the area, a strong trough will move into the entire region, bringing below to well below average temperatures. Saturday will only be a little chilly with highs in the lower to upper 60s, but Sunday really starts to cool down as 850 mb temperatures approach zero degrees celsius. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday are currently likely to be in the mid 50s inland and upper 50s for the rest of the area, however these are still subject to change.

Overnight lows, however, will be very chilly, with the GFS and DGEX suggesting lower to mid 30s inland, mid 30s to lower 40s for the immediate NYC Suburbs/southern Connecticut, and mid to upper 40s for NYC. While they could slightly change around, the idea is that widespread frost is possible for the area on Sunday night, with freeze even possible for the interior. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame and how cold it could get.

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