Sept 25: Significant Cool Spell To Start October?

Today was the last of the unusually warm days as the cold front started moving through, however a last minute trend on the models this morning indicated that today would be warmer than expected, which was the case, as a few parts of the area reached the 90 degree mark once again. Tomorrow will be much cooler for the area, with highs back into the 60s and lower 70s, with more rain for Tuesday and a weak warm up afterwards, only to be followed by what could be the strongest cool spell so far this fall.

Outlook For Tomorrow And Monday:

Tomorrow will be partly sunny with a NNE wind expected. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 60s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s for the rest of the area. The NAM was too cold at first, showing highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, but as expected, it has trended warmer, and now shows mid-upper 60s for NYC, though this is still likely a little too cold.

The NAM is now doing the same story for Monday, showing highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s, however this is likely too cold once again, and I am leaning towards the warmer models showing highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the area. Cloudy skies and showers are expected for Monday.

Tuesday: Heavy Rain Returns To The Area

A storm will start to bring rain to the area on Monday night as the low pressure moves up the East Coast while inland, just west of the Appalachians. This will bring mild temperatures for Monday night with light to moderate rain, and as the cold front moves through, a line of heavy rain and thunderstorms will likely move through for Tuesday, bringing the potential for up to 2 inches of rain locally, as well as some strong-severe storms and gusty winds. For now, I have not issued a Severe Thunderstorm Alert, however I am keeping an eye on this scenario in case severe weather becomes more likely.

As the heaviest rain will likely fall in the western parts of the area, I upgraded the immediate NYC area and the interior (NW NJ, Orange County in NY) to a Rain Warning, indicating a greater than 70% chance of over 1 inch of rain, but I kept Long Island/S CT with a Rain Watch, as it is possible that the heaviest rain stays too far west for these areas. Note that there is still uncertainty with the exact heavy rain placement, and the forecast for rain totals could slightly change in the next day or so. Stay tuned for more details on this storm.

**For those who do not know where to find the alerts, they can be seen in the “Weather Alerts” page, the link is in the top of the website.**

Wednesday – Friday Afternoon: Mild, But Mainly Cloudy

The cold front will likely stall to our east on Wednesday, keeping mostly cloudy skies in place with an isolated shower or two possible on Wednesday and Thursday. For now, I have partly/mostly cloudy skies in the forecast, but note that I could include more cloud cover and a shower chance with tomorrow’s update.

High temperatures will likely be in the lower to upper 70s across the area for Wednesday and Thursday, with Friday likely slightly cooler as a trough approaches the area.

Friday – Sunday: Significant Cool Spell Possible

The models are now becoming more consistent on keeping potential Nicole out to sea, with a strong trough moving into the area. I am currently thinking that this potential cyclone is not too likely to affect the area, however this time frame is still uncertain and I am keeping an eye on it in case the expected scenario changes.

If I were to follow the current scenario, a strong trough would move into the area during Friday night, bringing below average lows. Saturday night would be the coldest night, with lows in the 30s to lower 40s for most of the area except for NYC, with high temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s possible across the area. As I mentioned above, this is still uncertain, and can still change. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.

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