Sept 2 Morning Update

6:30 AM Update:

Earl went through a period of quick intensification last night, and was upgraded to a Category 4 by the NHC shortly after my afternoon update yesterday was posted. Earl strengthened even more overnight, and has reached a new peak of 145 mph and 928 mb. It appears that Earl’s intensification has ended for the main part, and weakening should begin later today. Yesterday afternoon, the NHC has issued a Tropical Storm Warning up to coastal New Jersey, and a Tropical Storm Watch for coastal parts of the area, including NE New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, and southern Connecticut, and these watches will likely be upgraded to warnings as Earl moves closer.

Earl is currently moving NNW at 18 mph, however it is occasionally moving a little NW or north, with the latest satellite loop showing that Earl is moving due north. The strong cold front expected to recurve Earl is currently in far eastern Nebraska, and steadily moving east, however it does not have to be right near Earl in order to force it to turn more NE. The westernmost models have trended slightly east, and the GFS and NAM have also trended slightly east, and with Earl already starting to turn north, I am thinking that Earl may have finished trending west, and may trend a little east before a consensus is reached for Earl’s forecast track, putting it slightly east of my forecast from yesterday, even though it is also possible that Earl could still be a little west due to uncertainty. Unless something unexpected happens later this morning, the next update will be posted this afternoon, including track, rain and wind maps for Earl, and the latest model updates as well as more on Earl’s short term observations.

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