Sept 18: Warmth Returns On Wednesday

Note: The 5-Day Forecast was updated tonight. The poll on the hottest temperatures between Wednesday-Friday also remains open until Tuesday.

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Today was a nice day for the area, with highs generally in the lower 70s, though tomorrow will be warmer ahead of a cold front. Monday and Tuesday will be cooler, but afterwards there is the potential for what could bring the last 90 degree day or two for parts of the area.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with a SW wind expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s inland, lower 80s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 70s for Long Island/S CT. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible tomorrow night as a cold front moves through, however any shower should be light.

Monday And Tuesday: Cooler, Sunny

By Monday, a cooler air mass will move into the area. As I have thought, the models were too cold at first, and have trended warmer, now showing mid-upper 70s for parts of the area, however based on their history, I am thinking this could be a little too warm, and I am expected mid to potentially lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, lower 70s inland, and lower to mid 70s for Long Island/S CT. Overnight temperatures will be chilly, in the lower to mid 40s inland, mid to upper 40s for S CT, upper 40s to lower 50s for the N/W suburbs of NYC and Long Island, and lower to mid 50s for NYC.

On Tuesday, a warm front will approach from the southwest, however an east wind will limit the temperatures, with highs in the lower to potentially mid 70s for most of the area except Long Island/S CT, which should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Wednesday-Friday: Significant Warm Up, Storms Possible

As I have mentioned over the last few days, a storm will organize well to our northwest on Wednesday, bringing in a much warmer air mass. High temperatures will likely rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s inland and lower to mid 80s for the immediate NYC area. The cold front moving through overnight, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely and lows generally in the 60s. On Thursday, the frontal boundary will likely set up close to the area, however there is still uncertainty on the high temperatures, which could range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Due to an east wind possible, I am leaning towards the lower end of this range at this time.

By Friday, another storm, but stronger and further south than Wednesday’s storm, will affect the Northeast. This could bring in temperatures potentially warmer than those of Wednesday, which would be in the upper 80s to potentially lower 90s for the immediate NYC area. The cold front will then move through on Friday night, and with the set up in place, strong or potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible with the cold front.

Saturday-Sunday: Cooler, But Another Potential Storm?

After the cold front moves through, Saturday will bring drier conditions and cooler temperatures, with high temperatures near-below average, in the 60s and 70s for the northern Mid Atlantic, even though there is uncertainty on how strong the cold air mass is. On Sunday, however, a few models have been showing a storm affecting the area. The GFS is the most extreme, showing a nor’easter with lows in the 30s and potentially snow mixing with the rain for the interior parts of the area, however this solution is an outlier and is not expected to happen. This only started showing up on the models recently, so details for this time frame may change around over the next few days. Stay tuned for more details for next weekend.

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