Sept 16: Dry And Comfortable Weekend Ahead

After today’s damaging storms in the immediate NYC area, which caused widespread damage from central NJ through Brooklyn and Staten Island into western Long Island, the area will get a break from the stormy conditions. It has not been determined yet whether this was a tornado or not, though a storm summary will be posted on this event once it is clear what caused the damage.

For the short term, some light to moderate rain will fall before midnight, with another round of storms possible after midnight, but they will not be as strong as the storms that went through for this afternoon. The round after midnight is actually the line that was originally supposed to be the strong storm line, but the afternoon line became stronger.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will start out mostly cloudy, then clear to mostly sunny by the end of the day, with a north wind expected. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s for most of the area, though a few upper 70s cannot be ruled out for the immediate NYC area.

Weekend Outlook: Dry, Comfortable

On Saturday, a slightly warmer air mass will approach the area, but highs will be similar to those of tomorrow, with mostly sunny skies expected. Sunday, however, will be warmer as a cold front approaches from the west, bringing partly cloudy skies and a chance of a few showers or thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s inland and in S CT/Long Island, with the immediate NYC area in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Monday And Tuesday: Chilly Conditions Return

By Monday, a trough will move into the area behind the cold front, and while it will not be long lasting, it will bring below average temperatures. Highs will range from the upper 60s (potentially mid 60s) inland, to the lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, with upper 60s to lower 70s for Long Island/S CT. Overnight lows will be chilly, similar to those of this morning, with Tuesday slightly warming up.

Late Week Warm Spell

By Wednesday, the storm track will shift well to the northwest of the area, and as a result, a large ridge is likely to build into the area. High temperatures are expected to reach the 80s by Wednesday, with 90s possible for the southern and central Mid Atlantic. There is uncertainty on whether Wednesday or Friday is the hottest day, but the hottest temperature during this time frame could potentially reach the mid-upper 80s, with a few models even showing lower 90s ahead of the cold front. Stay tuned for more details.

Tropics: Karl Intensifying, Igor And Julia Weakening

Hurricane Igor: Down To A Category 3

Hurricane Igor, the powerful hurricane that is now one of the biggest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic Ocean, has been downgraded to a Category 3 hurricane. Igor is moving slowly northwest, and will turn more north with time, and for at least the next few days, it is expected to maintain its intensity. Afterwards, as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane, Igor will approach Bermuda, and while the eyewall may stay SW of the island, hurricane conditions are becoming more likely in Bermuda, especially as due to Igor’s large size, even a near miss will still bring very dangerous conditions to Bermuda.

Hurricane Fabian of 2003 was one of the worst storms to affect Bermuda, and was a Category 3 hurricane when it was near Bermuda. While it is uncertain how bad Igor will be in Bermuda, it is expected to have a potentially significant impact on the island, and it could produce significant damage.

Hurricane Julia:

Hurricane Julia has significantly weakened over the last day, and is barely a Category 1 hurricane. Julia is expected to continue weakening, and could be absorbed by Igor in the future. Julia is not a threat to land.

Hurricane Karl:

Karl has managed to keep a very organized structure while inland, leading to a faster intensification once moving offshore. Karl is now a strong Category 1 hurricane approaching Mexico, quickly strengthening, and I am expecting Karl to peak as a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall in Mexico.

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