Note: The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the area, with new graphics used.
Today was another mostly cloudy and chilly day, with highs only in the upper 60s across most of the area. Due to this cloud cover, however, this morning’s temperatures were warmer than expected, and with the cloud cover still in place, I went slightly warmer with tonight’s forecast than my previous forecast did. Temperatures will warm up again over the next few days, other than Sunday when a widespread rain event is expected, but cooler temperatures will return again by the middle of the week.
Tomorrow will be a mostly sunny day across the area, with high temperatures warming up into the mid to upper 70s inland, upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area, and with an east wind, Long Island and S CT will reach the mid 70s.
Looking at the rest of the region, dry conditions are expected, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s in the Northeast to the upper 70s to lower 80s in Virginia.
Sunday-Monday: Wet Weather Returns
A weak low pressure with the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine will approach the area from the west on Sunday, with cloudy skies expected, and with an onshore wind, high temperatures will only reach the lower to mid 70s for the immediate NYC area, upper 60s to lower 70s inland, and the lower 70s for S CT and Long Island. Meanwhile, rain will start to enter the area during the afternoon hours, with light to locally moderate/heavy rain, and will exit by the late overnight hours. Rainfall amounts will be generally near 1/4 inch, with amounts up to 1/2 inch possible. Some models have been showing widespread 1+ inch amounts, but looking at their history, they may be too wet.
This rainfall, however, will not be enough to prevent the dry conditions from getting much worse, as a moderate drought is back for most of New Jersey, with a severe drought even showing up in central NJ. A widespread heavy rain event is unlikely at this time, and the drought could persist and potentially intensify for the next 2 weeks.
Monday will be drier with partly cloudy skies and an isolated shower or two, though high temperatures will warm up again into the upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area ahead of a cold front.
Tuesday – Friday: Significant Cool Down
As previously mentioned, a large trough will move into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Tuesday night/Wednesday. The models are not yet consistent on a solution, with the ECMWF barely even showing a cool down, but based on the pattern, I am thinking that temperatures could reach the lower to upper 60s across the area, with lows in the lower 40s inland and mid 40s-lower 50s for the immediate NYC area, with the coolest temperatures on Wednesday and Wednesday night. More details on this will come over the next few days.
Meanwhile, a potentially strong storm could move through the Northeast on Friday, bringing heavy rain to that region, but little rain to the area. This scenario, however, would bring a brief yet significant warm up, with cooler conditions to follow behind the cold front. Stay tuned for more details on this potential scenario.