Today brought the return of heat and humidity to the area, with temperatures reaching the mid 90s for the immediate NYC area. With yesterday’s highs reaching the lower 90s in some places, and the predicted temperatures for the next few days, tomorrow will make this an official heat wave, being in some places the 7th heat wave of the summer, as well as pushing the number of 90+ degree days this year up to 40 days in some places. In comparison, last summer had only up to 10 days of 90+ degrees, and most of these days were in a small time frame in late August.
Tomorrow will be another hot and humid day for the area, with high temperatures reaching the lower to possibly mid 90s inland, mid to upper 90s for the immediate NYC area, and with a WSW wind, Long Island and S CT will also reach the lower 90s away from the immediate coast.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible tomorrow, especially tomorrow night, however due to the lack of supportive parameters, only isolated severe thunderstorms at best are expected for the area.
Wednesday – Saturday: Cooler, But More Cloudy With Some Storms
Wednesday should also be warm for parts of the area, but not as warm as Tuesday due to an east wind, with upper 80s inland, upper 80s to lower 90s for the immediate NYC area, but due to the onshore wind, Long Island and S CT will only reach the lower to mid 80s. Increasing clouds are expected for Wednesday night.
Thursday and Friday, however, will be the complete opposite of Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, and while no severe thunderstorms are expected, the clouds, rain, slightly cooler 850 mb temperatures and a persistent onshore ESE wind, temperatures will only reach the lower to possibly mid 80s for most of the area, except for Long Island and S CT which should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few models still show a heavy rain solution, however most models have backed away from that possibility, only showing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday will be drier with partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a SE wind expected, with high temperatures again in the lower to mid 80s, however temperatures should be slightly warmer than those of Thursday and Friday.
Sunday – Tuesday: Heavy Rain Potential?
By Sunday, warmer temperatures are expected as the next cold front approaches. Despite this front being a week away, likely to move through sometime between Monday and Tuesday, the models are showing a lot of moisture ahead of this cold front with precipitable water values over 2 inches. While there is still enough time for things to change, the set up for this time period shows that a cold front is likely to move through during that time period, bringing the potential of heavy rainfall. Stay tuned for more details on this potential.
Brief Tropics Summary: A tropical invest currently in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is currently organizing itself, and has a 50-60% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm within the next 2 days. With the environment in the Gulf of Mexico, this storm could rapidly intensify should it become a tropical cyclone, with the possibility of a minimal hurricane in the more extreme scenario. This storm could have an effect on the oil spill, and more details on this storm will be posted tomorrow.