August 5: Temperatures Cool Down For Now

Blog Notes:

– The 5-Day Forecast page was not updated tonight, however it will be updated with tomorrow’s update.
– On Friday or Saturday, the Long Range Forecasts page will be updated, with an updated Hurricane Season outlook. Later this month, probably towards the end of August, I am planning on posting my fall outlook, as well as a small preview of what the area can expect for next winter.


Today’s Storm Potential: What Happened?

Over the last few days, I mentioned that there was a potential of severe weather for the area and the region today. All of the small details in summer thunderstorm outbreaks are usually difficult to forecast, and a general risk area is usually given several days out, which can be narrowed down usually on the day before the outbreak or the day of the outbreak itself. In this case, it only became apparent that the area would not see severe thunderstorms early this morning, when the short range models kept the area dry, with the best parameters to our north and south. I had a slight risk for the area, but it depended on what would happen in Pennsylvania, and because no storms formed there, I removed the slight risk.

As the models expected, instability increased in the morning with sunny skies, and as an area of clouds moved in, the parameters shifted towards New England, with the Mid Atlantic becoming more unstable. The clouds and the storms to the north and south, as well as the lack of supportive parameters, prevented storms from forming in central PA and moving towards the area, which resulted in no severe weather.

Southern New England did not end up with a lot of severe weather, but as it became apparent that widespread wind damage could occur in Virginia and West Virginia, a moderate risk was added. So far, in the corridor from KY/TN towards North Carolina, WV and VA, there are well over 200 reports of damaging wind gusts, with even more to come as an intense squall line moved through southern and eastern Virginia and North Carolina.


Tomorrow’s Outlook:

After today’s hot and humid conditions, tomorrow will be a nicer day. Partly cloudy skies and a WNW wind is expected. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s inland and for S CT/Long Island, with the upper 80s to lower 90s expected for the immediate NYC area. The dew points, however, will drop into the 50s, meaning that humid conditions are not expected tomorrow.

The area is expected to stay dry for tomorrow, however some rain is expected for northern Maine, scattered thunderstorms for western NY/PA, and scattered thunderstorms for southern Virginia, which the storms in S VA being a result of the cold front, which will bring a widespread severe weather outbreak to parts of the Southeast.

Weekend Outlook: Sunny, Comfortable Conditions

With mainly sunny skies returning to the forecast as well as a cooler air mass that will be in place, this weekend will be as nice as last weekend, where there were partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. This weekend will be slightly warmer, with Saturday’s highs in the lower 80s inland and in Long Island/S CT, and in the mid 80s for the immediate NYC area. Sunday will warm up, with high temperatures in the mid 80s inland, and in the mid to upper 80s for the immediate NYC area.

Early Next Week Outlook:

Next week will start out rather warm, with high temperatures back into the lower 90s for the immediate NYC area. There is, however, a lot of uncertainty about last week, as the model runs significantly differ from each other, though there is the possibility of storms early next week. More details will come on that with tomorrow’s update, which will focus on the longer range and which solution may be the most likely to happen next week.

Latest On The Tropics:

Tropical Storm Colin, after becoming an open wave earlier this week, appeared that it might regenerate between Friday and Saturday. This did happen, but a little earlier than expected, as Colin became a tropical storm again at 5 PM today, with its current wind speed at 60 mph as of 8 PM, making it a strong tropical storm. Colin ended up staying further north than my original forecast, and as a result, is likely to stay out to sea, however it may become a threat to Bermuda. It is possible that Colin intensifies into a hurricane before it becomes extra-tropical.

In addition, while Invest 92L is no longer an invest, Invest 93L just formed in the eastern Atlantic. At this time, it is likely to stay in the ocean and not become a threat to land, however an eye will be kept on it in case it does approach land.

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