This morning, I added a slight risk for the area, though I mentioned that NYC’s risk was still uncertain, and depended on whether storms would pop up over central Pennsylvania or not. Storms did not pop up in that area, with the best parameters shifting to our north. As a result, I removed most of the area from the slight risk. Southern Connecticut, however, remains in a slight risk, as there are severe thunderstorms moving through that are.
Meanwhile, I added a moderate risk in West Virginia and Virginia. With supportive parameters and storms intensifying and rapidly forming, there could be widespread wind damage in that area. Other than southern Connecticut, no rain is expected in the area, though an isolated thunderstorm or two could form, being the reason why I kept at least a 5% risk in place.
2:30 PM: There is curretly a strong thunderstorm just north of New Haven, CT, moving east. This storm is capable of producing strong wind gusts, as well as heavy rainfall amounts up to 1/2 inch possible. South central and parts of SE Connecticut north of the coast are potentially in the path of this storm.