– The 5-Day Forecast has been updated for the area.
– The poll for this coming week’s forecast pattern has ended with a total of 7 votes, here are the results:
2 – Below Average Temperatures
0 – Average Temperatures
3 – Above Average Temperatures
2 – Heat Wave
The newest poll is about whether Tropical Storm, future hurricane Earl will affect the area or not. Vote your thoughts on this in the poll, which will close on Wednesday.
Sunny conditions have now returned to the area, and are expected to stay in place for the next week. Today was a comfortable day in the area, peaking in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the area, however from this point, temperatures will only become warmer, as what will be potentially one of the last yet one of the most powerful heat waves of the summer will start on Sunday.
Saturday will be a nice day, with sunny skies, dry conditions and a north wind. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s for most of the area, with mid 80s expected for the immediate NYC area.
Sunday – Thursday: 5-Day Heat Wave
Sunday will be the first day of a 5-day heat wave for the area, with high temperatures rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, lower to mid 90s for the immediate NYC area, and upper 80s to lower 90s for Long Island and S CT. By Monday, hotter temperatures are expected with 850 mb temperatures near 20c, with high temperatures in the lower 90s inland and the mid 90s for the immediate NYC area. A few places southwest of NYC could reach 95-97 degrees, however these temperatures should not be widespread yet.
For Tuesday, the warmest 850 mb temperatures will shift to our west, but temperatures will still be hot, in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, and lower to mid 90s for the immediate NYC area. Wednesday, however, should be the hottest day of this heat wave as the warmest 850 mb temperatures shift into the area, between 20c and 22c. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s inland, mid to upper 90s for the immediate NYC area, but with a SW wind expected, Long Island and S CT will not be much hotter, in the lower to potentially mid 90s.
Thursday will likely be another hot day, with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and lower to mid 90s for the immediate NYC area with a SW wind expected again, however more cloud cover is likely ahead of a cold front.
Friday And Saturday: Cold Front And Rain, But Could Earl Move In?
**Note: As the previous poll has ended, I opened a new poll in the top right corner of the blog below the radar, about whether Earl could affect the area directly or not. Vote your thoughts in the poll, which will close by Wednesday.**
There are two possible scenarios for this time period, at this time I am leaning towards one but I will also discuss the other.
The scenario I am leaning towards is the one where Earl stays to our east, but note that it can change. In this scenario, the cold front will approach the area by Friday, bringing cloudy skies with rain and thunderstorms. This cold front will move offshore by Saturday, keeping Earl away from the US, with a trough bringing drier conditions and slightly below average temperatures to the area for the weekend, with high temperatures likely in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The other scenario, however, would happen should Earl start to recurve further west than currently expected, with a further west cold front. No model has showed this scenario yet, but some models have been trending south/west, and if this scenario is shown, then Earl may directly affect parts of the East Coast, leading to a completely pattern for the late week and weekend. Stay tuned for more details on Earl and whether it may affect the area or not.
Tropics: Atlantic Becoming Increasinly Active
Danielle: Now A Category 4 Hurricane
Last night, Daniell has intensified much more than expected, and has reached category 4 status. Danielle is currently southeast of Bermuda, and despite having briefly taken a west track early today, Danielle has resumed its NNW track, and will weaken and recurve out to sea well east of Bermuda. Danielle will still have some impact on the area, as swells are expected for the coast during the weekend, mainly on Sunday.
Tropical Storm Earl has failed to significantly intensify, and remains a weak tropical storm as expected. Intensification will continue to be slow for the short term, but in the longer range, faster intensification of Earl is likely, and at this time Earl is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday or Monday, and a major hurricane by the middle of next week.
Earl continues to trend west on the models, and I did take this into consideration when making my forecast track, which is southwest of the model consensus. I expect Earl to continue moving WNW, then switching more NW towards the middle of next week. More details about Earl’s longer range and how it may affect the area have been discussed above, in the late week section.
97L, Future Fiona
97L continues to slowly organize itself, and NHC is now giving 97L a 70% chance of becoming a TD over the next 48 hours. 97L has a favorable environment ahead of it, and will gradually intensify to become a tropical depression, then a tropical storm. For the longer range, Fiona may also become a hurricane as the models are suggesting.