Below, I will post short term storm updates for the heavy rain event that will affect the area. As there is still uncertainty, I will also include updates on the latest storm scenario, as well as any potential change from the original forecast.
Note: ***The short term forecast maps will be posted to the right of most of the storm updates. Click on these maps to view them in a larger size.***
4:30 PM: There is currently widespread moderate rain in western CT, moving NE. Eastern CT will likely stay away from this area of rain. Locally heavy storms are currently in Bergen county, with the northern end of a line of locally strong thunderstorms expected to pass through NE NJ and NYC later this afternoon. There is also a large area of heavy rain offshore, which could affect Long Island later today.
This is the final update for today. The next update will be posted tomorrow in the early morning hours. To see more about the current storm scenario and what might happen tonight, read the section in the bottom of this post.
2:47 PM: A heavy thunderstorm is currently in northeastern New Jersey, and is producing very heavy rainfall, with up to an inch possible in up to 1/2 hour. Flash flooding is possible with this storm, as well as strong wind gusts. This storm is moving northeast, and will enter Rockland/Westchester counties in NY and may affect far SW CT.
Storm Scenario Updates:
4:30 PM: The low pressure is now intensifying offshore, currently located SE of New Jersey, however this low pressure so far is SE than what the models showed it, with the models showing it just east of central New Jersey. There is still some uncertainty, and the low pressure could switch direction and move more north than NE, but at this rate, most of the heavy rain tonight will stay east of NYC, with a lot of places west of NYC possibly staying mainly dry for tonight with only a little rain instead of seeing another round of heavy rain. If the heavy rain will move into Long Island and S CT, 2 to 3 inches of rain are possible there, though the western parts of the area could end up with a rain total not much higher than their current total at this rate.