Below is my storm discussion and final forecast map. Note that as it is still uncertain where the heaviest rain falls, some slight revisions to the forecasts could be made during the storm updates that I will post this afternoon.
Storm Final Forecast / Rain Map
|Click on the map to view it in a larger size.|
Precipitation Forecast: With the low pressure moving into central New York, the heaviest rainfall will be located until this afternoon towards south/central New York, and south of the storm, non-severe showers and thunderstorms, locally heavy, will affect the area during the afternoon into the evening hours. With this part of the storm, at least 1/2 to 1 inch of rain is likely for most of the area, with locally higher amounts up to 1.5 inches in the heavier showers.
As the secondary low pressure takes over, the heavy rain will end across central/northeastern New York, with heavy rain forming near the low pressure. It is still uncertain where the low pressure will be exactly located, with the storm’s heavy rain forming either near the immediate NYC area, over Long Island and Connecticut, or offshore. The rain will then gradually become lighter in the western parts of the area overnight, with light rain for Monday, while Long Island and S CT will likely continue to see moderate to heavy rain.
Forecast Rain Totals / Rain Map: At this time, at least a total of 1 to 2 inches is possible for most of the area, with 2-3 inches for Long Island/S CT and places well north of NYC. These rain totals will possibly change, stay tuned for more updates this afternoon and/or in the late morning in case the storm’s forecast changes.
Note: This rain map has an unusually low confidence level, due to an unusually large model spread, and it is possible that the scenario may end up being different from what this map shows.