4:50 AM: What will likely be the first widespread heavy rain event for the area in over a month is starting now, with an intensifying band of heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder affecting NYC, northern New Jersey and SE NY. For the short term, the heaviest rain will be located towards Sussex, NJ and Orange, NY counties where heavy rain is expected, with moderate to locally heavy rain for NE NJ, Rockland and Westchester counties in NY, and NYC. Lighter rain will fall in Long Island and S CT counties.
The weather models, however, failed to forecast this heavy rain band for the morning hours, most of them keeping the morning hours dry. Most of this storm’s future is still uncertain, and will depend on short range observations.
Rainfall amounts up to 8 AM in most of Sussex and Orange counties will range from 1 to 2 inches of rain, with up to 1/2 inch for the immediate NYC area, and up to 1/4 inch for Long Island and S CT.
A final forecast and discussion for this storm will be posted this morning, along with a rain map, and storm updates will be posted this afternoon and early tomorrow morning if needed.