August 18 Morning: Final Storm Forecast

The storm that will affect the Mid Atlantic through tomorrow was a very difficult one to forecast, with models constantly switching solutions. What was very likely from the start though was that the storm would not trend much north, if at all due to the placement of the stalled front. Instead, however, the storm trended significantly to the south, which was not expected.

The models are now coming to an agreement, and looking at most of the models, northwestern New Jersey and Orange County, NY are likely to stay dry, with the immediate NYC area also likely to stay dry though a few showers are possible, with any rainfall less than 0.1 inch. Southern Connecticut is also likely to stay mainly dry with a few showers possible, especally in SE CT, and with the sharp cutoff line to the SE of Long Island, between 1/4 and 1/2 inch of rain is likely in Long Island, with the highest amounts of over 2 inches of rain to the south of the area, towards the Delmarva.

Below is my rain map for this storm. Note that there is still some last minute uncertainty and the heavy rain and northern end of the rain could end up slightly further north or south than what the map shows. Another update will likely be posted later today, focusing on the longer range.

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