5:00 PM: Since the morning update that was posted, it became apparent that the set up would not be able to produce a severe weather outbreak for the area as was originally expected. Despite favorable parameters, storms have failed to form and intensify, and instead have weakened or dissipated in several places, including near Wahington DC and northeastern PA, with a storm that was moving towards NYC but instead fell apart. This is not a good sign for severe weather, and as a result, I have removed the 30% wind risk. I have kept a 15% wind risk for now, as the parameters remain favorable and isolated severe storms are around, however widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are not expected.
6:15 PM: This is the last storm update posted for today. The next update will probably be posted tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. For the latest potential rainfall amounts for Wednesday night’s heavy rain, please look at the 5-Day Forecast (the 5-day graphic was not updated today, and there is no Day 5 forecast, though there should be one tomorrow).
5:50 PM: WARNING: A rapidly forming severe thunderstorm has just formed south of the Bergen County strong thunderstorm. This storm is capable of producing moderate hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall, and will be moving through Jersey City and south/central Manhattan over the next 1/2 hour.
5:42 PM: A strong thunderstorm is currently approaching Bergen County, producing heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and small hail. This thunderstorm will then approach southern Westchester county, and SW Connecticut. A short term outlook has been posted to the right, click on the map to view in a larger size.
5:02 PM: There are several strong thunderstorms in the area. One strong thunderstorm is approaching JFK near Coney Island moving east. This storm will affect the southern coast of SW and potentially south central Long Island with heavy rainfall, gusty winds and potentially small hail. A severe thunderstorm is in southern Middlesex County moving ESE, which will affect Monmouth county, outside of the forecast area. Another strong storm is in southern Morris county, moving NE, and will affect Essex, SE Passaic, and central Bergen counties with heavy rainfall, gusty winds and potentially small hail.